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Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • The Valley
    AFC Wimbledon

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Having lost two matches on the bounce, Charlton probably didn’t go to Fratton Park full of confidence on Tuesday night, though they still managed to return with all three points, which means that it’s highly likely that they’ll come into this match feeling upbeat. Against a struggling Wimbledon side, the hosts will be looking to cement their position in the top six.

      Charlton may have beaten Portsmouth in the week, but it’s tough to say that they were good value for that win. The Addicks played very well in the first half, while they took their chances well, but they gave more than enough away to not only fail to win the game but to come out second best. On that occasion, Lee Bowyer’s men shipped 3.55 expected goals, which suggests that they were very lucky to concede just a single goal. Fortunately, Wimbledon aren’t anywhere as much of a threat offensively as Portsmouth.

      They did endure a tough evening on their travels during the week, but returning home bodes well for the Addicks here. On their own patch, Bowyer’s men have been excellent in recent times. They’re unbeaten in four at The Valley, while their overall underlying figures tell us that they’re a force to be reckoned with. This season, Charlton are averaging 1.86 expected goals for at home, while they’re giving up just 0.98 at the other end. Quite simply, this means that Saturday’s hosts are creating much more than they’re giving away at the back.

      As the numbers above suggest, The Valley is no easy place to go, though Wimbledon have been much better on their travels than the league table suggests this season, so Wally Downes’ men won’t be feeling too downbeat ahead of this match.

      Wimbledon’s last couple of efforts on the road haven’t been great, but if we look at their performances prior to that, then it’s tough to see how they’ve won just once away from home this season. Against both Bristol Rovers and Blackpool on the road, the Dons dominated and created more than enough to come out on top. Furthermore, their first match under Downes last weekend saw them give away just 0.65 against Rochdale, which is pleasing, while their average expected goal difference of +0.26 (away from home) tells us that they’re not the easiest side to get the better of.

      To be honest, Charlton are the better of the two sides, though that isn’t always the most important thing, especially not in the Football League. For all the hosts will be buoyed by their win in the week and for all they’ve done well at home, they look a tad short against a side like Wimbledon, who can certainly frustrate teams and who currently rank inside the top five in terms of expected goal against. What’s more, the Addicks have been halted by “lesser teams” at home on a couple of occasions this season. At the prices, a small bet on ‘Wimbledon Draw No Bet’ stands out.

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