Charlton vs Walsall Predictions

Having won three on the bounce leading up to the busy Christmas period, Charlton cannot be blamed for having a little dip. Lee Bowyer’s men have lost each of their last two but facing both Coventry and Barnsley on the road was going to be anything but simple, so the Addicks can be forgiven for such results. Now back on their own patch against a Walsall side that hasn’t won since the start of the month, the hosts will fancy themselves to bounce back.

Charlton have lost each of their last two in League One and in all honesty, the defeats were merited. On both occasions, the Addicks were bettered in terms of both creativity and defensive strength. However, this home match against a dodgy Walsall side represents a big chance to bounce back.

When playing in front of a home crowd, Lee Bowyer’s men have looked very useful. They’ve won each of their last four at home, while they’re now unbeaten in six at The Valley. Moreover, in terms of expected goals, they’ve created more than their opponents in each of those six, while they currently boast a pleasing average expected goal difference of +0.77 on home soil.

In contrast, Walsall have found it tough to create more than they’ve given away on their travels. The visitors can get serious in the final third, as their average of 1.42 expected goals for suggests, but their forward efforts have all been in vein when playing away from home in recent times. Tuesday’s visitors have surrendered an average of 1.74 expected goals away from home during the current campaign, which is 0.89 more than Charlton at home.

The visitors done very well to get something off a bang-in-form Luton side at the weekend and they played well in doing so, but their efforts on the road have been weak for some time. Barring a decent showing away against an open-looking Peterborough side last time out, Walsall have been bettered in terms of expected goals in each of their last five travelling matches, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a match against a Charlton side that are very good at getting on top in front of a home crowd.

Charlton’s efforts at home have simply been far more impressive than Walsall’s on the road, so it’s very difficult to do anything other than side with the hosts, even at the prices. With an average expected goal difference of +0.77 at home, against a side that boast an average expected goal difference of -0.32 away, Charlton, who’ve kept a clean sheet in three of their last four at home, look a good bet on ‘Asian Handicap’ market. This is a big opportunity for the Addicks to bounce back and they’re fancied to do just that.