Cyprus vs Bulgaria Predictions

The Bulgarians, like Cyprus, didn’t grace Russia with their presence during the Summer, but they’ve done particularly well since the inception of this competition. Petar Hubchev’s men have won three of their opening four matches in League C, so they ought to go to Cyprus feeling confident, especially after winning the reverse fixture in October.

On the face of it, Cyprus have simply been treading water since the start of this competition. They’ve got just four points from a possible twelve, while they find themselves five points behind Friday’s opponents, having lost by two goals to one in the reverse fixture. That said, the bare figures don’t exactly tell the full story.

Cyprus did lose out to Bulgaria just a month ago, but they were unfortunate to come off second best on that occasion. By no means did Ran Ben Shimon’s men deserve to come out on top, but they didn’t exactly deserve to lose, while they very unlucky to concede twice, as the fact that they gave up just 0.79 expected goals suggests.

Offensively, Friday’s hosts haven’t done much of note, but they’ve done a pleasing job of keeping things reasonably tight at the back. They’re averaging just 0.83 expected goals for in the Nations League, which isn’t great, but to be conceding just 0.96 on average is far from disgraceful.

Bulgari’s bare stats also don’t exactly give us the whole picture. With nine points from a possible twelve, it would be easy to assume that the Bulgarians have looked strong, though their performances haven’t been quite as good as results would have us believe.

The visitors folded tamely when losing by a goal to nil in Norway last time out, clocking just 0.52 expected goals and surrendering 1.72 at the other end, while their overall efforts really haven’t been anything to shout about. They managed a measly 0.19 expected goal supremacy when beating Cyprus in the reverse fixture, while they struggled to get going in the final third in each of their first two matches in League C.

In truth, this pair are far more evenly matched than the league table suggests. The reverse fixture showed that there’s not much between the two teams, while, if anything, the underlying data tell us that Cyprus are ever so slightly the more well-rounded team. Keeping this in mind, the disparity in prices seems somewhat unjust. Having been unlucky losers in the reverse fixture, at a generous-looking price, Cyprus are worth backing to exact revenge by coming out on top in front of a home crowd.