Derby vs Burnley Betting Tips

After a difficult start, Derby have finally got to winning ways under Paul Clement with two impressive victories coming on the road over the past week against Preston and Reading. They were much needed wins although the latter was aided by a moment of stupidity from Reading’s Orlando Sa who was sent off half-way through the game which was goalless at the time.

Burnley are also on their best run of the season having picked up 4 straight victories in the league coming into this game and possess several players with good goal records in this league with Sam Vokes and Andre Gray at the forefront of that. However their winning run has come via some fairly comfortable fixtures with 3 out of the 4 at home and none against sides you’d really expect to be challenging for even the play-offs. A trip to a rejuvenated Derby presents them with a much tougher task though.

Sean Dyche normally sets his side up to be quite cautious on the road and it often works pretty well. Of their last 11 away games, only one has involved more than 2 goals. It’s a tactic they are sure to use here against a Derby side that have already found it hard to break sides down on numerous occasions this season. They haven’t scored more than 1 goal at the iPro since mid April and even the wins over the past few days were narrow single goal victories.

Therefore we might see something more resembling a chess match here between two of the promotion favourites at such an early stage in the season. Burnley would surely be happy with a point and will want this to be a tight scrappy game and there certainly looks value in backing there to be under 2.5 Goals at 3/4.

Derby have often controlled games this season without converting their dominance into 3 points. They are likely to dominate the possession again here against a Burnley side that isn’t always great at keeping the ball. Now that they’ve found that winning habit, it should be just a little easier to play with more freedom and patience without the crowd getting agitated. At some point in the game you have to fancy Derby to unlock the Burnley defence and it might be all they need to seal the win so consider backing the hosts to win 1-0 at 6/1.