Derry City vs Riga Predictions

• Fewer than three goals have been scored in three of Derry City’s last five home games.
• Fewer than three goals have been scored in Riga’s last five matches.
• Riga have not conceded more than once (in 90 minutes) in each of their last three European away games.

Not so sweet on Candystripes 

Derry City will bid to win their first European tie in eight years when they host Riga in the first leg of their Europa Conference League qualifying tie, but it could be a frustrating night. The Candystripes had lost three straight games amid a seven-match winless run between May and June which saw them lose contact with leaders Shamrock Rovers in the Premier Division title race.

But Ruaidhri Higgins’ side appear to be back on track after recent away wins over UCD and Bohemians – just in time for the start of their European campaign. Whether the hosts have rediscovered enough confidence to have a good go at their Latvian opponents remains to be seen, but lessons learned from Riga’s recent road trips suggest they will come to Derry to defend.

It’s the second time in four years that the Lions have been paired with League of Ireland opposition after it took penalties for the Virsliga side to oust Dundalk from the Champions League qualifiers in 2019 after two 0-0 draws.They gave Malmo a tough time in the same competition last season, going out 1-0 on aggregate after two tight games, then won a couple of Conference League qualifying rounds before collapsing against Lincoln Red Imps.

Deadlock may not be broken in Derry

One of those ties was against Maltese champions Hibernians who, after winning 1-0 in Riga, were taken to extra time by a stoppage-time Riga winner – after which they lost their disciple and crumbled.They were closely matched across the two legs there though and that same Hibernians side, minus the suspended players, have just gone down 3-0 to Premier Division leaders Shamrock Rovers.

That suggests they should be quite similar in ability to their hosts this Thursday and another nail-biter could ensue. The Candystripes have failed to score more than once in four of their last five home games, so any expectations of gaining a convincing lead to take to Latvia should be parked at the gates of Bradywell Stadium.

Riga have conceded two goals in total across their last five domestic away games and never more than once in 90 minutes in each of their last three European sojourns, so we’re looking at a solid unders play here.The deadlock may not even be broken on Thursday with a 0-0 draw looking very backable in correct score markets at around 10/1.

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