Dover vs Southend Predictions

Dover welcome League One strugglers Southend to Crabble Stadium on Sunday afternoon, as they look to reach the second round of this famous competition for just the fourth time in their history. The visitors will be hoping to keep the Non-League club in their place by recording an uncomplicated win.

Having reached the third round twice in the last 10 years, non-league Dover, who’ve never been in the Football League, are no strangers to a cup run; but they’ve struggled in recent times, failing to get past this round in each of the last four seasons. If they’re to reach the second round for the first time since the 14/15 campaign, the Whites will have to do better than when they were thumped 5-0 by League Two Bury last term.

At their own level, Dover are enjoying a reasonable campaign. Andy Hessanthaler’s men find themselves sat in a respectable 12th position, just four points shy of the coveted play-off places. That said, their recent form isn’t too pleasing, as they’ve won just one of their last six, three of which they’ve lost. Moreover, the Whites have struggled to stamp their authority at home, winning just two of ten, five of which they’ve lost, scoring a modest 12 goals in the process.

In addition to some reasonably weak home efforts in the National League, it is exactly five years since Dover won an FA Cup tie at Crabble. Since then, they’ve lost three and drawn one, conceding two or more in three out of four.

As for the visitors, it has been a tough old season for Southend, who’re now under the guidance of Sol Campbell. But this match against Non-League opposition represents a massive opportunity for the Shrimpers to rebuild their confidence.

Recent form isn’t exactly positive, but we shouldn’t read too much into that. Since Campbell, who described this game as a welcome distraction, took charge, Southend have lost four out of four, though as they’ve faced strong teams such as Doncaster, Ipswich, Sunderland and Portsmouth (at Fratton Park), the fixture list hasn’t been kind to them. At the end of the day, better teams than the Shrimpers will struggle against such opposition. Crucially, facing Dover, who’ve won just one of their last six in the fifth division, is far less daunting than any of Southend’s recent tasks.

In the betting, despite their struggles in League One, at the offered prices, Southend look a good bet to emerge victorious. Not only are they operating at a higher standard than their hosts, they’re up against a Dover side that has struggled at home in this competition in recent years and has recently developed a habit of giving plenty away, even on their own patch, conceding in 10 out of 10 in the National League. Dover also comfortably rank in the bottom half when it comes to both shots and chances conceded this season, which doesn’t bode well ahead of a match against a side playing two divisions above them.

All in all, the visitors look to have plenty in favour ahead of this match, so much so they look slightly overpriced and thus a small punt on the away win offers punters potential value. Those looking for the ‘Correct Score’ are pushed towards a 2-1 win for the Shrimpers. At the end of the day, Southend have the quality to overcome their hosts, who’ve conceded two or more in three of their last four home FA Cup games, but it would be foolish to rule out a home goal. After all, Southend have kept just one clean sheet at their own level this term, while the Whites, for all they’ve not really impressed, have scored five in their last three at Crabble.