Everton vs Sunderland Predictions

• Sunderland are winless in four, shipping 10 goals in that run
• Everton have improved at home, scoring nine goals across their last four
• The hosts have scored two or more goals in four of their last six league games

Can Everton spark their European hopes?

Everton face an uphill battle to secure European football, after dropping points in each of their last five games. The Toffees are 10th, and they need to be in the top nine to have a shot at a continental spot for next term.

Despite their winless run, there have been encouraging signs for the Toffees over the last month. They went toe-to-toe with Manchester City in a game they deserved to win, while they have played out 2-2 draws at Brentford and Crystal Palace.

Sunderland are only a point shy of the Toffees, but there doesn’t seem to be much appetite from them to push into the European mix in their first season back at this level. The Black Cats are happy to be comfortably clear of the relegation battle, and that’s led to their form failing off.

Everton are settling in at home

Everton’s first season at the Hill Dickinson Stadium has been largely a success, despite their winter of discontent. After failing to win a home game between December 6th and March 3rd, the Toffees have looked good at home.

Everton beat Burnley 2-0 and Chelsea 3-0, before suffering a late 2-1 defeat to Liverpool. Their 3-3 draw with City saw the Toffees rack up 2.72 Expected Goals, and that sharp attacking form can continue this weekend.

The Toffees have scored at least twice in four of their last six league games, and they meet a Sunderland side which looks to have checked out.

Sunderland are sliding in final weeks

Sunderland have the third-worst Expected points tally in the division, with their underlying numbers marking them out as one of the weaker sides in the division. Their defensive style lends itself to losing the possession battle and, in turn, conceding more xG. Their numbers also haven’t been helped by their struggles across the last four games.

The Black Cats lost 4-3 at Aston Villa and 5-0 at home to Nottingham Forest last month. They restored some pride with a 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United last weekend, but they lost the xG battle at bottom side Wolves in their last trip.

Everton can expose Sunderland on Sunday, with the Black Cats looking vulnerable from set pieces. Only six sides have conceded more shots from set pieces than Sunderland, and 28.2% of their goals conceded have come from those situations. Michael Keane has scored all three of his goals at home this term, and he’s a standout anytime goalscorer option.