Fluminense vs CSA Predictions

Sunday’s Brazilian Serie A action sees Fluminense doing battle with CSA at the Maracana. The hosts arrive as big favourites to claim all 3 pointd and are expected to do so without any real issues.

Simply put, Sunday’s game is a huge one for Fluminense boss Fernando Diniz and his players. The fans and club management have been patient with the team and held off in their criticism despite continual poor results, but a home game against such a weak opponent is seen as a must win and failure to do so could even see Diniz lose his job.

Indeed, Tricolor have been labelled unlucky almost constantly this season and whilst there’s some truth to that, they need to find more of a clinical, killer edge and quickly. Despite averaging the highest amount of possession in Serie A and the fourth highest amount of Expected Goals Scored in the league, Flu currently sit just 1 point above the drop zone and that’s not a position they can allow to get any worse, making a win of paramount importance this weekend.

Meanwhile, CSA weren’t expected to pull up many trees in Serie A this season following promotion from the second tier but the visitors don’t even look like putting up any kind of fight against an immediate return there. After 14 games, they’ve won just once and having also lost 8 of said matches, it’s more than apparent they are an extremely weak outfit.

Unlike, Fluminense, CSA’s underlying metrics don’t make for positive reading and paint an extremely bleak picture. They average the least amount of possession in the league, average the least amount of Expected Goals Scored per game and that ties in well with the generally held assessment of the side; an extremely weak and limited outfit that lacks the quality to really compete at this level.

Ultimately, we’re expecting an extremely aggressive performance from Fluminense and they know exactly what is expected of them. Man for man, they are stronger than CSA in all areas of the pitch and they shouldn’t have any issues in in asserting their usual dominance over the 90 minutes, whilst they’ll be focused on finding a more clinical edge in attack.

All things considered, we really like the look of backing Fluminense on the -1 handicap and at current prices, that’s exactly where our money is going. For all their struggles, Flu have still won their last 2 home games and this feels like a game in which everything can really click for them and we fancy them to rack up a big win, with a 4-0 margin of victory on the cards. CSA have failed to even so much as score in their last 6 Serie A matches and you can only envisage them being on the end of hammering on Sunday.