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Genoa vs Salernitana Predictions

  • 20:00
  • Expired
  • Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
Genoa
Salernitana

Genoa to Win and Under 3.5 Match Goals

2/1odds when tipped

Genoa 1-0

15/2odds when tipped
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Tip Reasoning

  • Salernitana have failed to score in six of their last seven games, and have lost each of their last three to nil.
  • Both teams will likely rotate ahead of difficult league fixtures on Friday, although Genoa have had an extra day to prepare for this match.
  • While Salernitana beat Genoa 1-0 in October, they were fortunate to do so after creating 0.5 expected goals, to their opponents’ 1.3.

Genoa and Salernitana struggling for goals, and points

Genoa and Salernitana are without a win, collectively, in 21 Serie A matches, and with both in league action on Friday, will likely rotate for Tuesday’s Coppa Italia meeting. However, any momentum gained from beating a fellow struggler can only be a good thing, particularly for Andriy Shevchenko, whose Genoa team have lost four of his five games at the helm.

Genoa suffered a crushing 3-1 derby defeat to Sampdoria on Friday night, leaving them without a win in 14 matches and having scored just once under Shevchenko’s management. Genoa didn’t manage a single shot at Juventus one week earlier, but will face the only Serie A team more impotent than themselves on Tuesday.

Salernitana have only scored 11 goals in 17 Serie A games, and have netted once in their last seven. Meanwhile, after Saturday’s 4-0 trouncing at Fiorentina, their record of 37 goals against is also one of the worst in Serie A. Salernitana did manage a 1-0 win over Genoa back in October, but were slightly fortunate to do so after registering fewer expected goals and attempts than their opponents.

Entertainment at a premium, but could it mean more for Genoa?

While Genoa have struggled all season, and Shevchenko has failed to provide the infamous ‘new manager bounce’, they will have had an extra day of preparation for this fixture, and with both teams likely to rotate ahead of difficult Serie A fixtures on Friday, should have greater squad depth than their newly promoted visitors.

These two teams have scored a combined two goals in their last 12 outings, so I wouldn’t expect goals in this tie. Backing Genoa to win and under 3.5 match goals, however, could represent a good value play.

Shevchenko will be desperate to get his reign up-and-running before the winter break, and home advantage could be enough to help them see off a Salernitana team who have looked hopelessly out of their depth in recent weeks. A narrow 1-0 home victory looks a solid correct score prediction.


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