Gimnastic vs Lugo Predictions

It’s not been a great season for Gimnastic, who come into this final weekend with no hope of remaining in the division, though they’ll be hoping to bow out having regained the slightest bit of dignity. Their visitors, who’ve just about stayed up, have little to play for, so a home win certainly isn’t out of the question.

Much of Gimnastic’s demise can be put down to terrible form on the road; Sunday’s hosts have won just two games away from home all season, while they’ve only scored eight goals, though their efforts at home haven’t exactly been great.

Unsurprisingly, they’ve done better at Nou Estadi de Tarragona than they have on the travels, though Gimnastic have the fourth-worst home record in this division. They’ve won seven, drawn five and lost eight, scoring 21 and conceding 24 in the process.

Lugo have won far fewer games on the road than Gimnastic have at home, but they’ve not been amazingly easy to beat, as they’ve only lost eight, which is the same number of defeats tasted by Sunday’s hosts on their own patch. Scoring goals has been a big problem for Lugo, who’ve notched just 13 times in 20 away matches, though they’ve been much better at the back than most of the teams around them in the table, as they’ve shipped only 21. Interestingly, only five teams have conceded less away goals than Lugo this season, so it’s probably fair to say that Sunday’s visitors are not easy to get at.

However, while the visitors aren’t the easiest side to get the better of, their overall numbers make them tough to fancy in the betting. Not only have Lugo scored just 0.65 goals on average away from home this season, but they also average just 0.7 expected goals for. In contrast, Gimnastic average 1.26. What’s more, the hosts have surrendered an average of just 1.0 expected goals at home, while Lugo have given up an average of 1.43 on the road.

Add in the fact that the hosts come into this game having scored five in their last two at home, couple it with the fact that Lugo are without a goal in two on the road, and it’s becomes very easy to make a case for a home win. Frankly, Gimnastic’s home efforts, especially in the final third, outweigh Lugo’s antics on the road, so much so that the home win looks more likely than the current prices suggest.