Granada vs Tenerife Predictions

It’s been an excellent season for Granada, who were relegated from La Liga back in 2017. All season long, they’ve been in the promotion mix and with just five games to go, as they sit in 2^nd position, Diego Martínez’s men are on course to return to the top flight. They’ll want to catch Osasuna, who’re currently six points clear at the top, though they’re primary focus will be on putting further daylight between themselves and Albacete, who’re just three points behind in 3^rd.

Solid is the word best used to describe Granada both of late and this season in general. Martinez’s side haven’t exactly been the second divisions’ great entertainers, but they’ve done what they needed to in order to sustain a promotion push. Friday’s hosts come into this game having avoided defeat in each of their last three, two of which they’ve won, while they’ve lost just one of their last 12 matches.

Going forward, Granada, who’ve scored more than once in just two of their last ten at home, haven’t been overly exciting, though they’ve done a good job of creating more than they’ve given away. They’ve kept three clean sheets in their last four at home, while they’ve surrendered expected-goals numbers of just 0.1, 0.91. 0.44 and 0.4 during that time. Overall at home, Granada have surrendered an average of just 0.53 goals, while they’ve given up an average of only 0.74 expected goals. At the other end, they average 1.29 goals for and 1.25 expected goals for.

In contrast, Tenerife have struggled from a defensive point of view on their travels, which is why they come into this match having won just one away game all season. Friday’s visitors have kept just two clean sheets away from home during the current campaign, while they’ve surrendered an average of 1.63 expected goals and an average of 1.41 goals. Such numbers wouldn’t be as bad if they’d offered plenty going forward, but that’s not been the case.

In addition to struggling at the back, Tenerife have also found it tough to get at teams on the road. José Luis Oltra’s men go into Friday’s game having failed to score in a rather chunky 39% of their travelling matches, while they average just 0.87 expected goals on their travels, as well as just 0.76 goals.

When we run the numbers and look at the overall home performances of Granada and compare them with the overall away-day efforts of Tenerife, it’s not terribly difficult to conclude that ‘Granada to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ represents a slice of value. For all they’ve not gone mad in terms of goals scored at home this season, the hosts have been very, very solid, while their efforts have been far more encouraging than Tenerife’s on the road, so much so that the chance of a low-key Granada victory appears to be slightly great than the current prices suggest.