Hamburg vs Duisburg Predictions

Despite sitting in 4^th position, Hamburg know that they’ve wasted the opportunity to return to the Bundesliga at the first time of asking. They are only three points behind Union Berlin, though Hannes Wolf’s men have a vastly inferior goal difference, so even if the pair do finish level on points, it would be the side from the German capital that prevails.

Given the size of the club and the fact that they’ve got the second-most valuable squad in the division, with an average player value that is easily twice as much as all but one of the other teams, Hamburg have had a terribly disappointing campaign. At the start of the season, their only goal would’ve been to finish inside the top two, but they’ve fallen short.

Poor home form has been the catalyst for Hamburg’s failure this term. On their travels, Sunday’s hosts have acquitted themselves reasonably well, as they’ve won eight, drawn four and have lost five of their 17 away games. Only Koln have taken more points than Hamburg on the road in this division, though unfortunately, their home efforts do match their travelling exploits.

Hamburg have just the ninth-best home record in 2. Bundesliga, as they’ve won seven, drawn four and lost five on their 16 home games. Such a record is not terrible, but it is far from what a promotion-chasing team should have. What’s more, Sunday’s hosts have scored less goals than they’ve conceded at home, which is pretty damning. They’ve scored a measly average of just 1.13 and have shipped an average of 1.38.

Fortunately for the hosts, Duisburg have been rather poor on the road. Only three teams have accumulated less points that Sunday’s visitors away from home this season, while no team has scored fewer goals. Even away from home, an average of just 0.88 goals for is dreadful.

In addition, Duisburg average just 1.02 expected goals for on their travels, so it’s fair to say that they’ve struggled offensively.

From a betting point of view, given that neither side has thrived offensively in their respective home and away games, it’s easy to feel that ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ is a bet that represents value at the current prices. With the hosts averaging barely more than a goal per game at home and with the visitors averaging less than a goal per game on the road, coupled with poor expected-goals for numbers, it look as though a low-scoring game is slightly more likely than the odds would have us believe at present.