Hamburg vs Union Berlin Predictions

Hamburg have finally got the ball rolling again after late September and early October saw them struggle for goals. Der HSV are unbeaten in seven after their 3-1 win away to Erzegebirge Aue in the last league outing before the international break, a result that, when combined with the 1-0 win over Cologne in the match prior, saw the North Germans rocket to the top of the table. When added to their second round DFB Pokal match against Wehen Wiesbaden, Hamburg have now scored seven goals over their last three matches, and forward Pierre-Michel Lasogga is the main beneficiary. He should have some confidence back after contributing four of those. Maybe, just maybe, boss Hannes Wolf, who took over a few weeks back, might have found the solution to their scoring problems.

Union Berlin had a similar worry surrounding a lack of goals until their last league game too, a 4-0 thumping of Greuther Furth at home. The East Germans are once again among the teams chasing promotion, though they’re the only side in the top five yet to feature in the Bundesliga since the German reunification in 1990. Union have become a much more established second-tier side over the last eight years there, though some clever purchases from Bundesliga sides over the summer shows they’re not content to stay there. And as the only side unbeaten in the league ahead of this match (W5 D8), holding the single best defensive record in the league (8 goals conceded), their chances look better than ever to do so.

No match is ever easy, and we feel that Hamburg will find this out the hard way on Monday. You’d like to think that the former-Bundesliga giants won’t underestimate their opponents, but there are a couple of key factors that make us feel that the visitors should get at least a point here. Firstly, it’s reasonable to assume that Union Berlin are a lot more used to the system they’ve played under all season (or longer) compared to a Hamburg side still under relatively new management. Union haven’t lost any of their last six matches on the road this season either (W1 D5), which included trips to a thriving Cologne and the then in-form Arminia Bielefeld. Notably, under 2.5 goals were scored in five of these too (83%), so we can absolutely see the East Germans travelling West with the intention to grind out a point.

Whether Hamburg have the strength to break down the Berlin wall is the real question,  and as the lowest scoring side in the top half (17 goals), it’s hard to see them doing so. Union’s strength lies in their defence and, as mentioned before, they managed to take a point away from the best offence in the league, Cologne (32 goals), earlier this season. Hamburg themselves have been solid enough at the back as well though, keeping a clean sheet in a massive 62% of their matches so far, so similarly it’s hard to see Union getting more than one here either. However, with forward Sebastian Polter having bagged five goals over his last three competitive outings, including two away to Dortmund in the DFB Pokal, Union should have some threat in front of goal. Ultimately, this looks set up to be a tight encounter, and given the respective forms, we’re going to sit on the fence and predict this to end deadlocked. Our prediction: a 1-1 draw.