Hertha Berlin vs Wolfsburg Predictions

Hertha have done reasonably well since returning from the winter break. Saturday’s hosts made a winning return to action when getting the better of Nurnberg by three goals to one, while they avoided defeat last time out. Failing to win at home is never ideal, though Pál Dárdai’s men have at least been tough to beat at Olympiastadion this season, which should mean that they go into this match against top-six rivals Wolfsburg feeling confident.

Considering that they looked very shaky when losing against Leverkusen prior to the winter break, Hertha can be pleased with their efforts since returning to action. They looked more solid against Nurnberg first time out, while they didn’t deserve to concede twice when giving up just 0.97 expected goals for at home to Schalke last time out.

However, Saturday’s hosts have made a habit of giving quite a bit away on home soil this season. They’ve conceded at least twice in each of their last two in front of a home crowd, while they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last six at this venue. In addition, they’re surrendering an average of 1.5 expected goals. Fortunately, they’ve looked useful going the other way, as they’ve scored an average of 1.78, while they’re averaging 1.62 expected goals for.

Wolfsburg have conceded plenty of goals away from home of late, shipping seven in their last five, but they’ve also scored plenty, which doesn’t bode too well for the hosts, who’ve been anything but sharp defensively at Olympiastadion.

Wolfsburg aren’t known as much of an attacking side, or at least they’ve not been in recent years, but their recent efforts away from home have been pleasing. Saturday’s visitors have notched at least once in each of their last six on the road, while they’ve posted some encouraging expected-goals for figures during that time, including 2.28 away against Augsburg, 3.86 against Hannover and 1.63 against Dusseldorf. Each of those three are reasonably suspect at the back, so it’s easy to feel that the Wolves can do well going forward on Saturday.

Given the respective home and away performances of both in recent times, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ looks a tad big in the early market. At least three goals have been scored in four of Hertha’s last five at home, as well as in four of Wolfsburg’s last five on the road, while both have posted some encouraging attacking numbers during that time. All in all, backing the goals to fly when this pair meet in the German capital on Saturday afternoon makes plenty of sense at the current prices.