Kazakhstan vs Latvia Predictions

Kazakhstan made the worst possible start to life in the UEFA Nations League when losing at home to Georgia on match-day one, though they’ve since bounced back and are now unbeaten in three matches in League D. After an encouraging draw in the reverse of this fixture and after beating Andorra by four goals to nil on home soil last time out, Thursday’s hosts will be feeling upbeat.

Having lost against a Georgia side that looks a little bit too good for this league, the Kazakhs didn’t exactly sparkle when they went away and drew against Andorra on match-day two, but they’ve since delivered two very encouraging performances. Their dominant home victory over Andorra last time out was pleasing, but their best performance came in the reverse of this fixture.

When taking on Latvia away from home, Kazakhstan were the dominant side. Not only did they create more in the final third, but they also gave less away, as the fact that they ended the game with a 0.66 expected goals supremacy suggests. Now back on their own patch, Stanimir Stoilov’s men ought to back themselves to come out on top.

Unlike Thursday’s hosts, Latvia are yet to pick up a win in the UEFA Nations League. They lost both home and away against Georgia, giving away slightly more than Kazakhstan did against the same opponents on home soil, while their efforts against Andorra at home, when drawing 0-0, were poor. On that occasion, the Latvians did keep a clean sheet, though they failed to score and racked up a rather unimpressive 0.79 expected goals. Against the same opponent, Kazakhstan not only won but they clocked a much more positive 1.45 expected goals.

Based on how the reverse fixture panned out and how the two teams fared when taking on Andorra in front of a home crowd, it’s very easy to make a case for the hosts, who’ve so far offered that bit more in all areas.

The bet that stands out is ‘Kazakhstan to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. Overall, the Kazakhs have given very little away, as their average of just 0.4 expected goals against suggests, while Latvia have struggled to create much, as the fact that they’re averaging just 0.7 expected goals for suggests. That said, although the hosts have offered more than their visitors on this occasion, barring their 4-0 win over Andorra last time out, which was somewhat flattering, they’re not the sort of side to hand out a thrashing, so combining a home win with ‘Under 3.5 Goals’ makes plenty of sense.