Kozakken Boys vs Vitesse Predictions

As a third division side, Kozakken aren’t fancied to get the better of top-tier Vitesse, though the hosts have already shown that they’re no mugs by knocking out Almere, who play in the second division, in the previous round, so perhaps they’ll come into this match feeling quietly confident.

Facing Vitesse won’t be easy, but with a home crowd behind them, Kozakken Boys will be hopeful of delivering a respectable performance. As far as playing at home goes, Thursday’s hosts have fared well in front of their own fans of late, as they’ve won each of their last three at Sportpark De Zwaaier, scoring eight goals and conceding none in the process. Such efforts will leave the hosts feeling upbeat, though it is important to be realistic. Against a side that is currently two divisions and 43 places above them, does such home form mean much ahead?

If we look at how they’ve fared against top-tier teams in this competition over the last few years, then it’s easy to fear for Thursday’s hosts. In 2016, Ajax visited this venue and left having won by six goals to one, while AZ won 3-1 here a year before that. Having said that, Vitesse haven’t often battered teams on the road in this competition.

As for the visitors, well, Vitesse haven’t exactly thrived in terms of results on the road of late, but their overall performances away from home this season suggest that they ought to be capable of exerting control over their third-tier hosts on Thursday evening. Recent away matches in the Eredivisie have seen Vitesse create plenty of chances, which bodes well ahead of a match against a defence that will be far less menacing than any of the teams that the visitors have faced recently.

In their last five away matches, Vitesse have clocked expected goals for figures of 1.66, 2.1, 0.19, 3.06 and 2.37. Such numbers tell us that, barring a no-show away against PSV, that Leonid Slutsky’s men are creating plenty of scoring opportunities against teams at the top level in Holland.

However, while their efforts away from home in the Eredivisie have been reasonably pleasing, Vitesse, who aren’t likely field a full-strength side for this match, haven’t exactly made a habit of blowing lower-level teams away in this competition of late. A narrow 2-1 win was all they could manage against sixth-tier RKAV Volendam in September, while they’ve only scored more than once in one of their last eight away games in the KNVB Beker.

Even if the hosts are at full strength and Vitesse rest most of their key players, which is likely, there’s still going to be a disparity in quality between the two at Sportpark De Zwaaier on Thursday evening, but since the hosts have fared well at home against higher-level opposition recently, coupled with the fact that Vitesse haven’t tended to blow teams away on the road in this competition, the bet that stands out is ‘Vitesse to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’.