Lecce vs Verona Predictions

We’ve got an early-season relegation showdown on Sunday, as Lecce take on Hellas Verona in the second round of Serie A matches. These two made their way up from Serie B last term, with Lecce finishing second and Verona landing in fifth and winning the playoffs. While they came up together there’s a clear gulf between the sides, despite a tough opening night for the hosts.

Lecce were demolished 4-0 at new-look Inter, with Antonio Conte’s side steaming over them. However, Lecce were adventurous enough to push forward and take shots, something which will serve them well in more even games like this contest on Sunday. The hosts are aiming to follow up 17-game unbeaten record at home, but will they add to that with three points?

It’s tough to have much faith in a Verona side who have lost their last eight top-flight games on the road. The visitors didn’t do much to impress us in the opening weekend, either. They drew 1-1 with Bologna, but the Expected Goals numbers suggest they should have been comfortably beaten. They had an xG of just 0.11, not great for a side who scored 61% of their goals at home last term. Now they make a tough trip, having lost 10 of their last 12 Serie A matches.

Last season Lecce were able to win home and away to Verona, including a 2-1 victory here in February. Across the previous six encounters, Lecce have outscored them 9-4, while Verona have lost four of their last six trips to this ground, conceding 12 goals in total across those visits. Everything points to a Lecce victory as far as we’re concerned, especially when you take their recent records into account.

The hosts have won their last 12 home games across all competitions. They went up last term with 13 wins in 18 home games in Serie B, while they have the advantage in clashes between these two teams. Meanwhile, Verona lost more games than they won away from home last term, while they were able to beat just one of the top six on their way to promotion. The visitors have one win in eight away games, while their terrible top-flight record makes us side with Lecce even more. We are backing a home win here, with a 1-0 scoreline our correct score selection.