Leeds vs Aston Villa Predictions

• Leeds have failed to score just once at home this season
• Both teams have scored in five of the hosts’ last seven matches
• Villa have conceded at least 1.1 Expected Goals in each of their last four
• The visitors have kept one away clean sheet this season

Villa are making strides

After a shaky start to the season, Aston Villa have won eight of their last 10 games across all competitions. That has taken Unai Emery’s side into the top six in the Premier League, while they look like a threat in the Europa League as well.

Villa have won five of their last six league games, including victories over Manchester City, Tottenham, and Bournemouth. The Villains have been finding the net after a shaky start in front of goal, as they put four goals past the Cherries ahead of the international break.

Familiar run for Farke

Daniel Farke’s Leeds made an encouraging start in their return to the top-flight, but the German boss seems to be in familiar territory in the Premier League. His successes in the Championship haven’t bought him much grace in the top-flight in the past. Pressure seems to be on him once again, with Leeds losing four of their last five league games.

That poor run has seen Leeds slip to 16th, while Sunday appears to be another difficult test for Farke. His side have had a fairly kind start with only three meetings with the current top 10, but they’ve lost two and drawn one of those.

Leeds are at least posing a threat going forward. The hosts have scored in four of their five home league games this term. Five of their last seven league games have finished with both teams scoring, suggesting Farke is once again struggling to make his team compact in the top-flight.

Issues remain for visitors

Villa’s strong run of form hasn’t done away with all their issues, as Emery’s side are still giving up chances. They’ve conceded at least 1.1 Expected Goals in each of their last four games, despite keeping three clean sheets.

Villa have conceded in four of their five league trips this season, while they’ve kept two clean sheets across their last seven league games. The fact that they shipped 2.8 xG across those two games, suggests they were let off the hook by bad finishing.

Leeds have a consistent scoring record at home, so both teams to score appeals here. However, the hosts’ poor run, along with their struggles against the league’s stronger sides, point to a 2-1 victory for the visitors.