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Luton Town vs Wycombe Wanderers Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • Kenilworth Road

    odds when tipped

    odds when tipped

    Tip Reasoning

    Luton, who remain under the temporary stewardship of Mick Harford, showed few signs of letting up last weekend, as they went away to New Meadow and returned with all three points. Since hitting the front in League One, the Hatters have not looked back. Wycombe are the latest team to be given the tough task of visiting Kenilworth Road, though the Chairboys are in decent form themselves, so they may fancy it.

    Although they may have been a bit fortunate to keep a clean sheet last weekend, as any team generally is when they surrender 1.72 expected goals, Luton continued to look very, very menacing in the final third, while their killer-instinct was alive and well. The Hatters have now scored at least three goals on seven occasions in the last four months, while they’ve scored at least twice in 16 of their last 20 League One fixtures –  impressive stuff.

    Furthermore, the Hatters have scored a large average of 2.53 goals at home during the current campaign and have now scored at least twice in nine of their last ten at Kenilworth Road. They’ve also won nine of their last ten at home and have very rarely deserved not too, as the fact that they currently boast an average expected goal difference of +1.0 suggests.

    In contrast, on their travels, Wycombe have looked quite weak at both ends of the pitch. The visitors have avoided defeat in each of their last two away games and have now scored in eight of their last ten on the road, but they’ve kept just a single clean sheet during that time. Moreover, they currently boast an average goal difference of -0.40 goals and an average expected goal difference of -0.52 when playing away from the comforts of home.

    It’s also worth adding in the fact that Saturday’s visitors surrendered 2.15 expected goals and two goals against Blackpool in their last away match. Considering that Blackpool’s forward-line is far less menacing than Luton’s, it’s very easy to fear for the Chairboys ahead of this match.

    Given the numbers posted by Luton at Kenilworth Road and the figures posted by Wycombe on the road, ‘Luton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ is very hard to steer clear of. With Luton scoring an abundance of goals at home this season and with them averaging 1.92 expected goals for and just 0.92 against, against a side that is averaging 1.01 for and 1.53 against away from home, there’s value to be had by getting on at the current price.

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