Mainz vs Augsburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Mainz kicked-off 2017 strongly with back-to-back draws against European contenders Cologne (0-0) and Borussia Dortmund (1-1). However, a humiliating 4-0 defeat away to Hoffenheim last Saturday saw them once again struggle going forward. Sitting closer to the relegation zone than the European qualification places, Mainz’s future doesn’t seem too bright in the aftermath of star midfielder Yunus Malli’s January transfer to Wolfsburg.

Mainz are the bookies’ favourites here at 11/10 with bet365, however, we feel there’s much better value in backing the visitors “double chance” here for the following reasons: Mainz 05 may have a reasonable record at home (W4 D3 L2) so far this season, but Augsburg are performing just as well, if not better (based on fixtures), on the road. All of Mainz’s wins at home (except for that against newly promoted Freiburg) have been against sides in and around the relegation zone (Hamburg, Darmstadt and Ingolstadt). Whereas, Augsburg, who have won or drawn in 66% of their away matches so far this season (W3 D3 L3), have taken some very strong results, such as, a 1-1 at Borussia Dortmund, a 0-0 draw at Cologne and a 2-1 win at Wolfsburg, across their last four on the road.

Notably, Augsburg have lost just twice in their last ten Bundesliga matches (W4 D4 L2), even though an injury crisis left them without a consistent starting forward for the majority of this run. Following a spell sidelined, forward Raul Bobadilla has made an instant impact on his return to the starting lineup. He assisted one and scored one last time out in Augsburg’s 3-2 win at home to Bremen and should be a decent shout to get himself on the score-sheet again here (anytime scorer odds to follow) against the Bundesliga’s joint 3rd worst defense (Mainz – 35 goals conceded).

Regarding a correct score bet, Mainz have only failed to score in 11% of their home matches (and both teams have scored in 78% of matches at the Opel Arena this season), so we should see goals at both ends given Augsburg’s new found form in front of goal. With Mainz struggling and Augsburg on the rise, we feel there’s top value on the visitors to snatch it here. As such, odds of 11/1 on Augsburg to win 2-1 with bet365 seem extremely decent here.