Mainz vs Hamburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Mainz 05 should definitely feel cheated after their 1-0 defeat away to Borussia M’gladbach last weekend. Mainz were denied a penalty for Tobias Strobl’s handball in the first half and had substitute Pablo De Blasis’ goal disallowed in the 88th minute for an incorrectly given foul on Gladbach keeper Yan Sommer. Though Mainz don’t have to look too far back for inspiration ahead of this Saturday, Mainz were unbeaten against Hamburg last season, circumstances are different this time – Mainz’s recent inconsistency contrasts against Hamburg’s resurgence.

Hamburg found their second (and second consecutive) win of the season in their fourteenth Bundesliga match at home to Augsburg last weekend (W2 D4 L8). The “ever-present” Bundesliga side are starting to build some momentum after their worst ever start to a new campaign, heading into this match unbeaten in four. Few would deny that the North Germans have looked dominant and much improved in recent weeks, scoring more goals in their last four matches (7) than over the prior ten (4) and keeping clean sheets in each of their last two. Striker Michael Gregoritsch (pictured above) has been the main contributor. He’s scored three over Hamburg’s last three matches and could be a potential candidate for an anytime scorer bet here at 11/4.

Mainz are the bookies’ favourite ahead of this match at 19/20, however, we feel Hamburg or draw (double chance) at 17/20 has to be the better bet here for the following reasons: Hamburg’s record away to Mainz alone is enough to make this a profitable bet – Hamburg have won or drawn in eight (W4 D4) of the recorded ten away matches (80%) against Mainz. However, Hamburg’s week-by-week improvement sees them starting to fulfill their potential against sides exactly like Mainz, who concede too many goals – the 05ers have conceded the 3rd most goals of any team in the Bundesliga. Not to mention that Mainz are the second most out-of-form side in the Bundesliga over the last five matches (W1 L4).

Following on from above, Hamburg’s goal-scoring form has seen them score exactly two goals in four of their last five matches against inconsistent defensive performers. Hence, we feel Hamburg have decent potential to push themselves to that number again here. Meanwhile, Mainz have scored at least one goal in four of their last five, so a goal for the hosts shouldn’t be out of the question either. As such, Hamburg to win 2-1 at 11/1 should be a reasonable shout.