Mainz vs Werder Bremen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Mainz 05 shortened the gap between themselves and the European qualification places to eight points following a 2-0 win at home to Augsburg last Friday – the 05er’s first win in five games (W1 D2 L2). Mainz haven’t won back-to-back Bundesliga matches since September, but the combination of forward Jhon Cordoba and attacking midfielders Levin Oztunali, Jairo Samperio and loanee signing Bojan was electric going forward last time out and the hosts should be looking for more of the same here against the struggling Werder Bremen.

Bremen find themselves on the cusp of the relegation zone as their 1-0 defeat to Borussia M’gladbach last weekend took them to four consecutive defeats – a record last seen at Werder in 1980. Coach Alexander Nouri will be desperate to end this run with the clock ticking on the season and his position at the club – Bremen have taken only 16 points from 17 matches under Nouri, the worst record of any Werder coach who has been in charge for at least six games.

Mainz are favourites here at 19/20 with bet365, but we feel there’s better value to be had in a bet on “over 2.5 goals and both teams to score” at evens for the following reasons: Bremen are not at all improved in the defensive department since last season’s embarrassing run of 34 consecutive matches without a clean sheet – Bremen recorded their first clean sheet on their 35th attempt in the 2015/2016 campaign. The North Germans currently hold the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga (42 goals conceded) and are averaging just over 2 goals conceded per match. However, unlike other teams in the relegation battle, Bremen seem not to struggle in front of goal, scoring at least one goal in 90% of their matches so far this season. Consequently, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score has landed in 6 of Bremen’s 9 matches on the road this season (66%). Notably, Mainz, who seem revitalised going forward, also have a tendency to see goals at both ends in matches at the Opel Arena (70%).

Regarding a correct score bet, Mainz’s home form is on the rise (W5 D3 L2) and Bremen’s overall form has hit “rock-bottom”. Bremen have lost 56% of matches on the road, so we feel that Mainz should be able to clinch this one. As such, Mainz to win 2-1 at 15/2 seems a reasonable shout here.