Manchester United vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in seven of United’s last nine Europa League games
• United have struggled for clean sheets, but they’ve been in great goalscoring form in Europe of late
• Bruno Fernandes has scored six times across United’s last four matches in the Europa League

United bid for Bilbao return

Manchester United’s 3-0 win in Bilbao last week has left them just 90 minutes away from a return to the Basque city for this season’s Europa League final. Athletic were dreaming of a home European final, potentially as the perfect goodbye to Spain star Nico Williams. Instead, they need an improbable Old Trafford comeback in order to progress.

The one glimmer of hope the visitors can cling to here is that the Red Devils have had their shaky moments in Europe this season. They allowed a 2-0 lead at home to Lyon slip in the last round, going from a 4-2 aggregate lead to a 6-4 deficit in under 40 minutes.

While United are in pole position to qualify, their struggles this season suggest it won’t be an entirely stress-free evening for the Old Trafford faithful.

Athletic can open the game up

Athletic need to force the issue at Old Trafford, which should put the United defence under pressure. The Red Devils found themselves behind early in Lyon in the last round, while they conceded after 10 minutes against Athletic’s rivals Real Sociedad in the last 16.

United went to Bilbao after conceding in seven of their previous eight Europa League ties, while they conceded 1.1 Expected Goals against a 10-man Athletic side in the first leg. The hosts have conceded 1.0 xG or higher on nine occasions in Europe this term, but they’ve also kicked into gear at the other end.

The Red Devils have scored at least twice in each of their last four Europa League games, generating 11.3 xG. They’ve scored 31 times across their 13 matches in the competition, while managing only three clean sheets. With the visitors in need of an early breakthrough, expect the game to open up and the two sides to share a few goals.

Fernandes can lead United forward

Bruno Fernandes is United’s top scorer in the Europa League this term and he’s carried them to the verge of the final. The Portuguese has scored in three of his last four appearances in Europe, netting six goals in that time.

Fernandes has also scored in all three of their home games in the Europa League in 2025, including a hat-trick in the 4-1 win over Real Sociedad. He netted twice in Bilbao last week, while the Portuguese had the weekend off ahead of the return fixture.

The visitors have conceded multiple goals in two of their last three European games, struggling to contain Besiktas and Roma. While they can expose United’s defensive issues, the Red Devils should be able to add to their tally and secure a spot in the final. Back Bruno Fernandes to score anytime in a 2-2 draw.