Mansfield Town vs Notts County Predictions

Mansfield have certainly been enjoying themselves in League Two of late; David Flitcroft’s men are unbeaten in 12 league games, a run which has landed them in a pleasing 6^th position. Having drawn when facing Lincoln away from home last time out in League Two, the Stags will be looking to record a third successive league win in front of their own fans when they welcome Notts County to Field Mill on Saturday afternoon.

It’s becoming harder and harder to fault Mansfield in League Two. The Stags continue to offer plenty going forward, while they’re going from strength to strength at the back. Few teams have impressed like David Flitcroft’s men at home, so it appears that Notts County have a very tough task ahead of them.

When surrounded by the comforts of home, Mansfield have played teams off the park on a regular basis. They’ve scored 14 goals and have conceded just five in ten home games, while they’re averaging a very impressive 2.04 expected goals for. However, what is most impressive is the fact that Flitcroft’s men are surrendering just 0.76 goals on average. It’s very easy to see why Mansfield have lost just once at Field Mill during the current campaign.

If Mansfield have been impressive at home, then Notts County have been decidedly unimpressive on their travels. Saturday’s visitors, who’ve recently appointed ex-Wimbledon boss Neal Ardley as their new manager, have conceded a whopping 23 goals on the road this season. Their average of 1.86 expected goals against, suggests that they’ve been a tad unfortunate to concede so many, but it also tells us that they do concede far too many scoring opportunities, especially since they’re averaging just 1.21 at the other end.

It may well be that Neal Ardley comes in at sharpen things up defensively, or at least that’s what he’s been hired to do, though improvements aren’t likely to come straight away. If we consider their away performances this season, then it’s easy to fear for County ahead of this match.

Given that the visitors have an average expected goal difference of -0.65 on the road and with Mansfield’s average expected goal difference of +1.28 at home, the bet that stands out is ‘Mansfield -1 Handicap’.