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Middlesbrough vs Leeds Predictions

  • 19:45
  • Expired
  • Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough
    Leeds
      • Sky Sports Action

      Under 2.5 Match Goals

      10/11odds when tipped
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      Leeds 1-0

      13/2odds when tipped
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      Middlesbrough vs Leeds Predictions

      • Leeds have won all five of their visits to the bottom six in the Championship so far.
      • These two sides are among the worst in terms of shots converted in the Championship (8.3% & 8.7% respectively).
      • Leeds have the league’s second-best defensive record, while Boro are the second-lowest scorers.
      • Under 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Middlesbrough’s home games & in 71% of Leeds’ Championship matches.

      Reset for Leeds

      All of the talk of Leeds choking has disappeared, with their rivals starting to feel the pressure. Their recent scare could be the making of Leeds, as it came early enough for them to turn things around, while it also put some pressure on the chasing pack.

      Now Leeds are on the road this weekend, aiming for victory at the Riverside. With the gap between the top two and the rest growing, this is a great chance for Marcelo Bielsa’s men to pick up all three points. They visit a Middlesbrough side who are in a tricky position, as these two sides could potentially be two divisions apart next term.

      Boro Collapse

      When these sides met last season, it was a clash of styles and a meeting of contenders. Bielsa’s Leeds against Tony Pulis and Middlesbrough was a serious culture clash, but Boro were always in the running for the top six at least. This time around, the hosts are in serious danger. Not only are they just three points clear of the bottom three, but across their last three league matches – against the Championship’s current bottom three – Middlesbrough have picked up just one point (D1 L2) and have managed just three shots on target, with none of those coming in the last two games.

      Meanwhile, since their defeat to Nottingham Forest, Leeds have taken seven points from the last nine available in the Championship (W2 D1). The visitors are worthy favourites against a Boro side who have failed to win their last 10, losing three of their last four. With Leeds winning all five of their visits to the bottom six so far, they are likely to gain three points in this trip.

      Signature Leeds

      These are two sides who really struggle to convert chances. Middlesbrough (8.3%) are one of just three teams to have a lower shot conversion rate in the Championship this season than Leeds (8.7%). However, the big difference between them is the number of chances they create. The Whites have had more shots on target than any other side in the division (175), while only two sides have managed fewer than Boro (115).

      Leeds haven’t let their poor finishing impact them too much, as they possess one of the best defensive records in the division. They’ve conceded only 30 times in 34 games, giving them the league’s second-best defensive record. Against a Middlesbrough side who are the league’s second-lowest scorers, Leeds should be confident of a clean sheet.

      But that calibre of defending, along with their missed chances, has led to plenty of low-scoring games. The visitors have seen under 2.5 goals in 71% of their matches, while the same has landed in 76% of Middlesbrough’s home games. We expect this one to follow suit, so we’re backing under 2.5 goals, with a 1-0 away win our correct score pick.

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