Napoli vs Spezia Predictions

• Spezia have conceded two or more goals in each of their last four games, winning none.
• Napoli thrashed Liverpool 4-1 on Wednesday, the third time in six games they’ve beaten a -1 handicap this season.
• Napoli trounced Spezia 3-0 on the final day of last season.

Scintillating Napoli tear Reds apart

Liverpool fans could probably count on one hand the amount of times they’ve been comprehensively outplayed over the last few seasons, never mind torn apart as they were at Napoli on Wednesday. Luciano Spalletti’s men have shown hints of their attacking prowess during an unbeaten Serie A start, but that 4-1 thrashing of Liverpool means Spezia must be especially wary on Saturday.

According to expected goals (10.5 xG), Napoli have been the most creative outfit in Serie A this term, while no Italian top-flight side can match their return of 12 goals in five games, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scoring four. Il Partenopei are also defending a fearsome home record on Saturday; they have gone unbeaten in their last six on home soil, winning four and netting 19 goals.

Spezia received a 3-0 hammering by Napoli on the final day of last term, and their recent defensive shortcomings mean a repeat could be in store. After an opening-day win, Spezia have gone without a victory in four games, but more alarmingly, have conceded two or more goals in each of those contests. According to expected goals, only strugglers Cremonese and Monza are giving up better chances than Spezia, which will be music to the ears of Victor Osimhen and company.

Spalletti can mastermind handicap-busting win

Given their ferocious attacking form and the shortcomings of their visitors, backing Napoli to beat a -1 handicap, which they’ve done six times in their last 10 matches, could be a prudent play.

Meanwhile, a 3-0 home win appears a decent correct score prediction; Napoli have scored three or more goals in five of the teams’ last seven head-to-head meetings, while Kvaratskhelia’s four Serie A goals are only bettered by Marko Arnautovic (five) this term. The pacey Georgian could represent value on the anytime goalscorer market.

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