29th Aug - Mets vs Red Sox

It feels strange to be reflecting on the New York Mets’ mediocre home form considering how well they’ve been playing overall. The NL East leaders look like a roster that should be a serious threat in the postseason this autumn. They’ve won 12 of their last 17 and have opened up a six and a half game lead on the Washington Nationals.

Daniel Murphy is expected to return to the Mets line-up, with team captain David Wright expected to be the player that rests. Murphy is one of this team’s best and hottest hitters batting .352 and scoring 20 RBIs in his last 21 games.

Jacob deGrom gets the start tonight after failing to make it through three innings in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies. He has been better than good at Citi Park so far this season posting a 6-2 record and 1.46 ERA in 12 starts at home this season.

Seven and a half games back in the Wildcard race, it’s probably too late for the Boston Red Sox to make a run. However, they are playing some of their most consistent baseball of the season far winning seven out of their last 10 games.

Also, there’s been few better pitchers through the month than Joe Kelly, which is surprising since he was demoted to play Triple-A ball in June. He’s now aiming to become the first Red Sox pitcher to go 6-0 in a single month since Pedro Martinez did it in 1999. He appears to have improved his secondary pitches and he looks more capable of fighting through some challenging counts.

Three Reasons for Betting Tips

1. Red Sox and Kelly form

Boston have been playing good baseball. They’ve spoiled their fair share of accumulators and doubles over the last few weeks. They’re line-up is looking more like the one that most predicted would turn up in the preseason. This is their most in-form pitcher and their bullpen hasn’t been over-worked over the last week. We like the odds on the +1.5 run line in this one.

2. DeGrom a little off?

Maybe it was just one game, but DeGrom threw a lot of pitches through the middle of the plate and the Phillies obliged by swinging their bats through the ball and making good contact. Tonight’s opponent is a tougher line-up and maybe this is just a slightly off period for DeGrom.

3. Hittable pitchers

The Game Total probably reflects DeGrom’s record at Citi Park, but we think both of these pitchers are pretty hittable and we’re anticipating that the two line-ups will pick up their fair share of runs in this game.