Nurnberg vs Augsburg Predictions

  • 14:30
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  • Max-Morlock-Stadion

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      Tip Reasoning

      There are few certainties in football, though Nurnberg returning to the second flight of German football at the end of the current campaign is one of them. Boris Schommers’s men are seven points from safety, while they’ve now lost each of their last four league matches and are without a win since August. That said, this match against fellow strugglers presents Nurnberg with a good opportunity to finally give their fans something to cheer about.

      Make no mistake about it, Nurnberg aren’t good enough to remain in the Bundesliga, but their recent home efforts have been far from been appalling. Moreover, Augsburg have been poor on the road.

      Last time out on home soil, Nurnberg to Leipzig by just a single goal, and you could even say that they were unlucky to lose, as they ended the game with an expected goal difference of -0.23. Prior to that narrow defeat, Saturday’s hosts denied Dortmund, drawing 0-0, while they held Europa League-chasing Werder Bremen before to that. On that occasion, Nurnberg posted 1.0 expected goals for and conceded 1.04. A repeat of that effort against a lesser Augsburg outfit could easily see Schommers’s men get a positive result.

      Der Club are essentially relegated, but they’re not the only ones who’re struggling. Augsburg may be five points above the drop, though some of their recent efforts suggest that they’re rapidly moving in the wrong direction, so they’re very much involved in the fight for survival.

      Saturday’s visitors do come here off the back of a win, while they’re now unbeaten in three, though their recent away form is very worrying. Augsburg are now without a win on the road since October. They’ve since lost seven of their eight travelling Bundesliga matches, conceding a total of 17 goals and scoring four in the process. They also have an average expected goal difference of -0.67 on the road. Nurnberg’s average expected goal difference at home is -0.13.

      Interestingly, Nurnberg’s last home match was against Leipzig, who Augsburg last faced on the road. Against that opponent, Nurnberg competed well as they clocked 1.13 expected goals and conceded 1.35. In contrast, Augsburg conceded 1.69 and created just 0.44.

      Backing a side that sits bottom of the pile certainly won’t be everybody’s cup of tea, though there’s plenty to suggest that Schommers’s men are a decent price to emerge victorious on Saturday. Nurnberg have given away considerably less at home than Augsburg have on the road in recent times, both in terms of goals and expected goals, while their overall performances in front of a home crowd have been far better than Augsburg’s away. On this basis, Der Club are backed to gain their first league win of 2019.

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