Nurnberg vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Bayer Leverkusen have been hot and cold this season and their 2-0 win at home to Stuttgart last time out was just their fourth in twelve Bundesliga outings (W4 D2 L6). Only their recent DFB Pokal and UEFA Europa League successes distract from one of their worst ever starts to a league campaign. You have to note, however, that Leverkusen have been on the up since winger Karim Bellarabi (pictured) returned from injury. He has added some creativity to an otherwise stale attack at times. He also missed out in both of Die Werkself‘s most recent league defeats against the red-hot RB Leipzig and TSG Hoffenheim – tough fixtures for any team!

Newly promoted Nurnberg head into this off the back of another hard to swallow defeat. Der Club conceded five goals away to what was at the time the Bundesliga’s weakest offence, Schalke 04 (a 5-2 defeat). Coach Michael Kollner has done about as good as he can with the players available to him, managing to take impressive points against Eintracht Frankfurt (1-1) and Augsburg (2-2) in the weeks before the international break, so Nurnberg do have some tricks up their sleeve. That said, Nurnberg’s defensive record does include a number of huge defeats – notably, against Borussia Dortmund (a 7-0 defeat) and RB Leipzig (a 6-0 defeat) – that will no doubt play on their minds.

So where does that leave us ahead of this game? Well, Leverkusen have won on each of their last three visits to Nurnberg (4-1, 2-0, and 4-1) and we feel that there’s a good chance this streak could continue on Monday. It’s in Nurnberg’s poor defensive form where that idea excels. Der Club have conceded a league-high 29 Bundesliga goals – an average of around 2.5 goals per game against them – and they’ve also conceded two goals or more in six of their last eight league outings (W1 D2 L5). For Leverkusen, the return to form of forward Kevin Volland is also a huge boost. He scored a brace against Stuttgart and he’s also bagged three goals over their last four Bundesliga away days. He should fancy his chances against this shaky Nurnberg defence.

It’s no secret that Leverkusen have had a few defensive problems of their own though – in fact, that’s what has ultimately been costing them results – so the question here would be whether Nurnberg have the attacking prowess to cause the visitors some problems? Probably not. Just one team has recorded fewer shots on target at home than Nurnberg and only a handful of teams have seen fewer shots on target against them than Leverkusen on the road. And while Leverkusen’s defensive record means a goal from Nurnberg wouldn’t be too much of a shock – the visitors have kept a clean sheet in just 17% of their away matches after all – it’d still be hard to see them outscoring Heiko Herrlich’s men. Our prediction: 3-1 Leverkusen.