Osasuna vs Las Palmas Predictions

After narrowly missing out on the play-offs last season, Osasuna have made massive strides this time around. Jagoba Arrasate’s men currently hold a four-point lead at the top of the table with just three games remaining. It looks for all to see that the side that came down from La Liga in 2017 will be going back up as champions. In contrast, Las Palmas, who exited Spain’s premier division at the end of last season, have failed to challenge for promotion, so their season is effectively over.

Osasuna haven’t set the world alight in the last couple of weeks, but they’ve continued to edge closer to claiming the title by delivering two sturdy performances. They gave next to nothing away when drawing 0-0 away against Alcorcon, while they also kept things very tight when drawing 0-0 away at Cadiz last time out. Such efforts won’t have turned many heads, but Arrasate’s men won’t care, as they’re doing what needs to be done.

On their own patch, Osasuna have been a bit more flamboyant; they’re the only side in the division to avoid defeat, and they’ve done that by scoring lots and conceding very few. Only Mallorca have scored more home goals than Osasuna, who’ve notched 31 times in 19 home games, while no team has conceded fewer goals than Saturday’s hosts, who’ve been breached just seven times at El Sadar.

Las Palmas come into this fixture in decent form; they’ve won each of their last two matches, though both of those victories came in front of a home crowd. On the road, it’s been a different story for the Gran Canaria side, who’ve won just three times on their travels during the current campaign.

When playing at home, Las Palmas have done well, so well that you’d think they were a side challenging for the play-offs, though they’ve let themselves down away from the comforts of Estadio Gran Canaria. Pepe Mel’s men have won three, drawn eight and lost eight of their 19 travelling matches, scoring 16 and conceding 30 goals in the process. Their underlying numbers aren’t great either, as they average 1.03 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of 1.4.

If we put Osasuna’s home exploits up against Las Palmas’ efforts on the road, the bet that stands out most is ‘Osasuna to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’.

For all they’re just about the best team in the division, especially at home, Osasuna aren’t known for dishing out heavy beatings. They’ve won each of their last 14 matches at El Sadar, but they haven’t scored four in any of those, while they’ve only scored three twice during that time. What they are excellent at doing is keeping their opponents quiet. The hosts have surrendered an average of just 0.39 goals and 0.72 expected goals at home this season. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that Las Palmas have scored just 0.83 goals on average away from home, as well as the fact that they’ve recently posted expected goals for figures of just 1.15, 0.74, 0.56 and 0.44 and it becomes very easy to side with a relatively low-scoring home win, which appears to be more likely than the current prices suggest.