Oxford United vs Newcastle Predictions

  • Expired
  • Tue 4 Feb
Oxford United
  • BBC One
  • BBC iPlayer/BBC Sport Website

Under 2.5 Match Goals

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Draw 0-0

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Tip Reasoning

  • Newcastle and Oxford drew 0-0 in their first FA Cup 4th Round meeting last month.
  • Oxford scored one or fewer goals in 12 of their last 15 matches.
  • The U’s hold the joint best defensive record in League One
  • Under 2.5 goals were scored in 71% of Newcastle’s last seven fixtures.

Oxford aiming to frustrate

Having held Newcastle to a 0-0 draw at St. James’ Park last month, a defensively robust Oxford United will be aiming to frustrate the Magpies again in the teams’ FA Cup 4th Round replay on Tuesday.

The League One outfit warmed up for their televised cup clash with a 2-1 comeback win over Blackpool on Saturday, though that was just the third time in 15 attempts that Oxford managed to score more than once in a game.

While goals have been hard to come by for Karl Robinson’s side this term, their lack of cutting edge has generally been offset by some excellent defensive performances at the other end.

Oxford currently hold the joint second best defensive record in League One this season, having conceded just 27 times in 27 games, and their ability to keep things tight in their own third has seen them keep a clean sheet in an incredible 69% of their home games since August.

Numbers like that are certain to concern a Newcastle fanbase that are frustratingly familiar with their own team’s lack of attacking thrust.

Newcastle’s final third struggles

The Magpies have been just as toothless as their hosts in the final third for the majority of the 2019/20 campaign, and more recently, Newcastle hit the net one or fewer times in ten of their last twelve fixtures in all competitions.

After their disappointing 0-0 draw at home to Oxford in the first meeting between the pair at the end of January, Newcastle were again kept off the scoresheet on Saturday by a Norwich City outfit that have conceded more goals than any other Premier League club this season.

Having already kept their more illustrious antagonists out once, a buoyant Oxford have the defensive tools at their disposal to keep Newcastle at arm’s length again on Tuesday.

Low scoring contest likely

Whatever lens you choose to view it through, this mid-week cup replay clash has all the makings of another low-scoring battle for inches and bettors shouldn’t expect fireworks at the Kassam Stadium.

Under 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of Oxford’ last 10 games and in 71% of Newcastle’s last seven, and all the factors point to the club’s tussle on Tuesday being similarly low on action.

With that considered, we think the under 2.5 total goals market holds plenty of value for this week’s contest, while our correct score forecast settles on another drab 0-0 stalemate.

Fear of a repeat of their confidence-shattering 0-3 FA Cup 4th round reverse at Oxford in 2017 should ensure that Newcastle approach Tuesday’s replay against the same opposition with a great deal of caution.

The Magpies haven’t won an FA Cup match on the road since 2006, and with little attacking spark on either side, it  could well take a penalty shootut to separate Oxford and Newcastle this week.

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