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Rochdale vs Gateshead Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • Spotland Stadium

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      Tip Reasoning

      It’s been an up and down campaign for Rochdale, who’ve struggled to be consistent. The hosts come into this match off the back of two games without a win, though they are unbeaten (in 90 minutes) in three. Manager Keith Hill will surely be confident that his side can use their attacking strength to get the better of non-league opposition.

      The pressure is very much on Rochdale to come out on top in this fixture; they’re operating two divisions above their opponents, while they’ve been afforded the luxury of playing on home soil, so Keith Hill’s men are expected to come out on top, though they’ve dealt well with such expectancy when playing at home in this competition in recent years.

      What’s more, although results haven’t often gone their way, Dale have performed well at home in League One this season, especially from a forward point of view. In the defensive third, Rochdale continue to be a side that gives quite a bit away, as the fact that they’re conceding an average of 1.59 expected goals at home suggests, though they’re averaging 1.87 at the right end, which bodes well ahead of a match against non-league opposition. Furthermore, their performance against a very strong Luton side in their most recent home match was excellent, and a repeat of that would likely see the hosts cruise to victory here.

      In contrast, Gateshead haven’t exactly flourished on their travels this season. They’ve mirrored Rochdale in the fact that they’ve been useful at one end and not so useful at the other, though they’re different in the sense that they’ve given little away but have struggled to create. If we look at the number of goals scored by Gateshead on the road, then it’s easy to assume that they’re strong going forward, though the underlying data tells us that they’re not too sharp.

      When plying their trade away from the comforts of home, Gateshead average just 1.04 expected goals for, which doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of an away match against League One opposition. One positive note is that they’re averaging just 0.78 expected goals against on the road, though keeping things tight against a League One side that is strong offensively is likely to be much harder than keeping any National League side quiet.

      The fact that Rochdale have done well offensively at home in League One is key. Having hurt teams in the third division, averaging an impressive 1.87 expected goals at home, Keith Hill’s men ought to cause plenty of damage against a side from the fifth-tier. Gateshead have defended well in their own division, but they won’t have faced a side of Rochdale’s attacking quality, while if the underlying stats are anything to go by, they lack the quality to compete in the final third. All in all, backing the hosts to advance to the next round courtesy of a convincing victory is the way to go.

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