Schalke vs Nurnberg Predictions

Schalke’s season only really got going in October after the prior two months brought five consecutive defeats to Wolfsburg, Hertha, Gladbach, Bayern, and Freiburg in the league. Domenico Tedesco’s side was on the wrong end of a 3-0 scoreline against Frankfurt just before the international break too, their seventh defeat of the 18/19 campaign, as many as they lost over the whole of last season. A lack of goals has been their main concern – not only have Schalke failed to score in three of their last four outings, but they’ve also not found the back of the net in 55% of league matches this term – so injuries to forwards Mark Uth and Breel Embolo are just two more reasons why Schalke might have a hard time this weekend.

Newly promoted Nurnberg also head into this off the back of a defeat ‘to nil’, though theirs, 2-0 at home to a struggling Stuttgart, was arguably a worse one to lose. Coach Michael Kollner has done about as good as he could with the players available so far this season, managing to take impressive points against Eintracht Frankfurt (1-1) and Augsburg (2-2) in matches before that, so it’d be fair to say that the South Germans won’t be easy opponents either. That said, Nurnberg’s away record does include huge back-to-back defeats to Borussia Dortmund (a 7-0 defeat) and RB Leipzig (a 6-0 defeat), something that will no doubt play on their minds. Nurnberg will at least be boosted by the return of Swedish striker Mikael Ishak (2 goals in 8 appearances) from injury.

So, what bet do we like the look of for this match? Well, with Schalke under-performing, you could make an argument for there being some value in the visitors here. However, we feel the most obvious angle is in the under 2.5 goals market because of the following: first off, neither side has been particularly impressive offensively. We’ve briefly covered Schalke’ poor attacking record already, but when digging deeper into the stats, it’s shocking to see how poor they’ve actually been. Schalke are third-bottom overall in the shots on target table – Nurnberg are 17th – and they also hold the single worst scoring record in the Bundesliga (8 goals scored). Something that those aforementioned injuries don’t help with.

Another standout stat to back up a bet on the under 2.5 goals market is when we turn our focus at the other end of the pitch. Both Schalke (7th) and Nurnberg (11th) are in the middle of the pack with regards to shots on target against them, which goes to show that their past opponents have been clinical in their chances against them, particularly in the visitors’ case. However, in this case between two out-of-form attacks, it’s more unlikely we’ll see any flawless finishing. An expectation of fewer shots on goals and fewer shots against simply makes this one set out to be a lower scoring affair, but given that Schalke should be the better side on the day and that they have a recent taste of success with wins in the DFB Pokal and Champions League, we fancy them to come out ahead. Our prediction: 2-0 Schalke.