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Shrewsbury vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

  • 19:45
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    Plymouth Argyle

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Shrewsbury’s improvement was culled at the weekend, as they lost by three goals to two when playing Wycombe away from home, though caretaker boss Danny Coyne is unlikely to be too deterred by that result. The Shrews continue to play well overall, while they’re not easy to get the better of, so they’re likely to come into this fixture feeling confident.

      The Shrews were indeed beaten at the weekend and although they didn’t play well enough to win, they certainly didn’t play poorly enough to conceded three goals and walk away with zero points. After all, there won’t be many times that a team gives up just 0.72 expected goals and ends up picking the ball out of their net on three occasions.

      But for Saturday’s defeat, Shrewsbury have been ticking along nicely, despite being without a permanent manager at present. They delivered a commanding performance against Rochdale in their most recent home match, a replication of which would surely be enough to see of a Plymouth side that has struggled to keep things tight away from home this season.

      Plymouth have improved slightly of late; they were far from disgraced when losing somewhat unjustly at home to Sunderland, while their efforts in victory against Fleetwood on Saturday were very pleasing. However, beating a poor Fleetwood side at home is one thing, taking on a useful Shrewsbury side away from home is completely different.

      Although Plymouth’s performance on Saturday was encouraging, they still didn’t look great at the back, even against a team that is struggling to make things happen offensively, while their efforts on the road have been so poor that it’s easy to see the hosts thriving on Tuesday.

      Not only have the Pilgrims surrendered more expected goals than any other team in the division this season, but on the road, they’ve looked all over the place defensively. Derek Adams’ men have conceded a ridiculously high average of 2.75 expected goals on their travels, while they’ve countered that with a measly 1.2 at the other end. In contrast, Shrewsbury have a pleasing average of 1.86 expected goals for and an average of just 1.12 against at home.

      Taking the numbers into consideration, it’s very tough to go against the hosts, who’ve performed as though they can negotiate a win against Argyle without too much fuss. With the Shrews averaging 1.86 expected goals for at home and Plymouth giving away so much on the road, the bet that stands out is ‘Shrewsbury to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’.

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