Spezia vs Cagliari Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals have been scored in four of Cagliari’s last seven, and in each of Spezia’s last two.
• Only the current bottom three have scored fewer Serie A goals than Spezia and Cagliari this term, with both averaging exactly one goal per game.
• Spezia rank 18^th in Serie A for home goals, while Cagliari rank 17^th for goals scored on the road.

Tight affair anticipated between relegation candidates

Spezia’s great run of form in early 2022 has given way to a sequence of four successive losses, making their home game with Cagliari, who they lead by just one point and one position in the Serie A relegation battle, a crucial contest, particularly as 17^th-placed Venezia have a game in hand over both sides.

To be fair to Spezia, their recent fixtures have pitted them against Fiorentina, Bologna, Roma, and Juventus, a tough run which saw them lose by exactly one goal on each occasion. Thiago Motta’s team have actually conceded just 17 Serie A goals at home, a record bettered only by seven outfits. At the other end, however, they have netted just 13 in 13 games, the division’s third-worst return.

Cagliari, meanwhile, have lost just one of their last six, establishing a competitive streak of their own in draws with high-flying Fiorentina and Napoli and a shock win over Atalanta. They have seen fewer than three goals netted in four of their last seven outings, and average less than a goal per game on their travels this term, netting just 12 times in 14 road trips.

Under three goals likely in tense clash

Given the massive stakes at play in this six-pointer, as well as the fact that only the current bottom three have scored fewer than the 28 league goals netted by each of Spezia and Cagliari this term, backing under 2.5 goals looks the best available play.

Cagliari may have revived their safety hopes of late, but just three away wins all season suggests they may struggle to earn a win over a Spezia team who have remained competitive against the big boys recently. A tense 1-1 draw, therefore, looks a decent correct score play.

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