Swansea City vs Gillingham Predictions

Swansea are currently enjoying a decent run of form in the Championship; they’re unbeaten in four, while they come here off the back of a pleasing win against Sheffield United last weekend. This match against lesser opposition, who were beaten badly in their own division last time out, presents the hosts with an excellent opportunity to continue building confidence.

The Swans go into this match off the back of several good performances. They were nice and tight when edging ahead against Sheffield United last weekend, while they were solid against Preston prior to that. Before they shared the spoils at Deepdale, Graham Potter’s men flexed their muscles away at Reading and that’s exactly what they’ll be looking to do against League One opposition on Saturday.

Swansea haven’t always got the right result at home this season, but several of their attacking efforts suggest that they ought to find plenty of joy against a Gillingham side that aren’t exactly strong at the back. The Swans’ last three expected goals for figures (at home) of 1.69, 1.51 and 2.04 bode well. If they can create against Championship sides, then carving out opportunities against the fourth worst defence in League One shouldn’t be too tough.

As for the visitors, well, Gillingham haven’t exactly thrived on their travels this season. They have won three of their last five away in League One, which is pleasing, though if we dig a little deeper, it becomes easy to see that they’re there for the taking at the back. The Gills have shut their opponents out in just three of their 14 away matches during the current campaign, while they’ve surrendered a worrying average of 1.84 expected goals, giving away 2.39, 1.37, 1.52, 1.81 and 1.5 in their last five on the road.

However, while the Gills look weak at the back, they will still fancy themselves to make headway in the final third. Not only did Gillingham notch against Premier League opposition in the last round, but they’ve posted some decent numbers in their last couple of away games, clocking 1.61 expected goals for against Burton and 1.47 against Southend. Neither of those opponents are poor sides, so such figures bode well. What’s more, while the Swans have looked good going forward at home of late, they’ve not exactly kept things overly tight. Sheffield United posted 1.19 expected goals for at this venue recently, while Swansea conceded 2.39 against Wigan and 1.83 against Aston Villa prior to that.

Given that they should have that bit more about them in terms of quality, it would be a surprise if the Swans didn’t emerge victorious from this encounter, though they may just have to do it the hard way. Gillingham, who’ve got the threatening Tom Eaves in their forward-line, lack defensive quality but they won’t simply roll over, and given the numbers above, could quite easily get on the score-sheet. At the prices, ‘Both Teams to Score’ is worth a play.