Swindon vs Carlisle Predictions

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  • County Ground
Swindon
Carlisle

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

It was a happy opening day for travelling Swindon fans, who witnessed their side beat Scunthorpe at Glanford Park. Having both won and kept a clean sheet on match-day one, the Robins will be looking to take maximum home points from their first home game. Carlisle also won on match-day one, so they too will be on the lookout for another positive result.

Swindon were far from superior in terms of creativity on match-day one, as they ended their game against Scunthorpe with an expected goal difference of -0.10, though they were by far the better team in terms of end product, as they were marginally superior in terms of shots on target, while it was they that took advantage in front of goal. Summer signing Jerry Yates, who scored six goals when on loan at Carlisle last term, looked particularly useful, not to mention well suited to Richie Wellens’ high-pressing approach.

Not only did Swindon look useful in terms of finishing off chances, but they also did a good job of holding their opponents at bay before pouncing on the break. In fact, the way in which Wellens’ men counter-attacked at pace for both of their goals was extremely promising.

Carlisle also did a good job in front of goal last weekend, as they notched twice in a home win over Crawley Town. Creativity wise, as they posted 1.33 expected goals for, the Cumbrians weren’t too bad, though despite winning, they struggled to outperform their visitors in that respect.

Carlisle may have come out on top, but since they conceded 2.38 expected goals, surrendering 19 shots in the process, and emerged with an expected goal difference of -1.05, it’s probably fair to say that they weren’t fully deserving of the win.

From a betting point of view, ‘Swindon to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ catches the eye. The Robins weren’t amazing in terms of creativity last week, but under a manager that likes his sides to get on the front foot and play a high tempo, attacking game, they soon may be, while they were very effective in front of goal.

If we combine the above with the fact that Carlisle, who surrendered a rather large 2.38 expected goals, looked relatively easy to breach last week, then backing the hosts to score multiple times on route to victory begins to stand out as viable option at the prices.

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