Tottenham Hotspur vs PSV Predictions

Having dominated for most of the game, Spurs would’ve been bitterly disappointed to leave Eindhoven with a mere one point a fortnight ago, though they only had themselves to blame. Defensive mistakes cost them on that occasion and such mistakes very nearly cost them at Molineux last time out. Mauricio Pochettino will be hoping that his side can continue to do well in the final third, but without giving so much away at the back.

In truth, there was plenty to like about the way Tottenham went about their business in the reverse fixture. They got on the front foot, used the ball well and created some excellent openings. But for one or two mistakes at the back, a wrongly disallowed goal and the crossbar, Spurs would’ve left Eindhoven with a resounding victory. They did of course return to London with a share of the spoils, though their performance will leave them feeling confident about getting the desired result this time around.

From an offensive point of view, Tottenham have taken things up a notch in recent weeks; they’re looking more purposeful, while they’re creating more chances. Not only did Pochettino’s men really get at PSV in the reverse fixture, but they imposed themselves against both West Ham and Wolves, scoring six goals in the process. A repeat of either of those attacking showings, or indeed the one in Eindhoven, would likely see the hosts thrive in the final third.

However, for all their attacking efforts have been pleasing, Tottenham seem to have a real issue at the back, as they just cannot avoid leaking goals, goals that usually stem from a mistake in the defensive third. The fact that Pochettino’s men conceded against PSV, Wolves and West Ham doesn’t exactly bode well. Nor does the fact they shipped a total of 6.63 expected goals in those three fixtures.

Given how Tuesday’s hosts have been defending of late, PSV will very much fancy themselves to do well offensively at Wembley. After all, the Dutch side took advantage of Spurs’ frailties in the reverse fixture and as such, weaknesses have continued to come to the fore since, there’s no reason as to why the visitors cannot get competitive in the final third.

PSV have shown against both Spurs and Inter that they’re capable of doing the business in attack, while you only need to look at their league exploits to know that they’re anything but shy in front of goal.

From a betting point of view, with both sides likely to go for the win, coupled with the fact that they shared four goals (and 3.99 expected goals) in Eindhoven a fortnight ago, the bet that stands out is ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’, which has yielded a profit in three of Spurs last four and in three of PSV’s last four. There has also been an average of 3.12 expected goals in PSV’s away games this season, while there’s been an average 3.06 in Spurs’ home matches.