Turkiye vs Italy Predictions

• Italy recorded 1.7 xG in their 2-0 home defeat to Belgium
• Turkiye saw over 2.5 goals scored in seven of their eight competitive matches last year
• Italy scored 24 times in World Cup qualifying, including their two playoff matches
• Moise Kean has scored in seven of his last eight starts for Italy

Pair can improve on opening defeats

This clash is shaping up to be a relegation six-pointer in the Nations League, with these two sides both suffering home defeats in their openers.

Turkiye lost 1-0 to France despite edging the clash in terms of Expected Goals, while Italy lost 2-0 to Belgium in a match where they won the shot count 21-19.

Italy won 3-2 in their last visit to Turkiye back in 2022 under Roberto Mancini, and the former Inter Milan boss began his second spell with that loss to Belgium.

Mancini has plenty to work with in terms of attackers, as Italy scored 21 times in their eight World Cup qualifiers last year. The visitors also saw 21 goals scored across their last Nations League group campaign, before they lost 5-4 on aggregate to Germany in the quarter-finals in early 2025.

Turkiye are also aiming to return to high-scoring form, as the hosts scored at least twice in five of their six qualifiers last year, including a 2-2 draw with Spain. Seven of their eight competitive matches last year featured at least three goals, while they conceded six times across a disappointing World Cup campaign.

The home side have plenty of promise in attack, with Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Eintracht Frankfurt’s Can Uzun offering plenty of creativity. However, they had goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir sent off against France, weakening them at the back.