Vitoria Setubal vs Desportivo Aves Predictions

• Setubal are just one win away from the top 6.
• A victory for Aves would lift them off the bottom of the table for at least 24hrs.
• 10pts separate the two clubs ahead of kickoff.
• Both sides have lost the majority of their last six matches in all competitions.

A tight game is expected between two sides that don’t score a lot of goals

Setubal have won three of their last six meetings with Aves and under 2.5 goals have been produced in three of the pairs’ last five encounters. The hosts have picked up two wins and a draw from their last four Primeira Liga games and under 2.5 goals have been produced in four of their last six outings, while Aves have just one win and five defeats from their last six games in all competitions and under 2.5 goals have been produced in two of their last four matches.

Setubal are yet to lose at home this season and Aves have lost all of their seven away games, with the hosts averaging 1.57 points per home game and the visitors yet to pick up a single point on the road. Setubal score an average of 0.43 goals per home game and concede an average of 0.14 goals while Aves score an average of 1.14 goals per away game and concede an average of 3.00 goals, but we are expecting another tight game in the Estádio do Bonfim which is why we have gone with a final scoreline of 1-0.

Setubal’s strong defensive record at home hands the hosts the initiative

Setubal’s home games produced an average of 0.57 goals and none of the host’s home games have produced over 2.5 goals and only 14% have seen both teams score, all of which adds weight to our prediction for a low-scoring affair this weekend. Setubal have only scored three goals at home this season but have only conceded one goal in front of their own fans while Aves have conceded 21 goals on the road compared to the 8 they have conceded at home, so it is clear to see where the visitors’ problems lie away from home.

Setubal have kept clean sheets in 86% of their home games and Aves are yet to keep a clean sheet on the road, with 86% of the host’s home games producing between 0 and 1 goals. A majority of Setubal’s wins this season have been obtained with a one-goal margin (3 wins), while on nine occasions Aves have lost by a one-goal margin, which provides another reason to back a 1-0 home win this weekend.

We’re confident that under 2.5 goals will be produced in Saturday’s clash and we have predicted a final scoreline of 1-0 in favour of the hosts. Setubal head into the game as the form favourites and will be hoping that a win proves enough to push them into the top six this weekend. Aves have been hopeless on the road this season and despite beating Braga last time out we expect the visitors to return to losing ways on Saturday.