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Walsall vs AFC Wimbledon Predictions

  • 19:45
  • Expired
  • Bescot Stadium
    AFC Wimbledon

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      Things got worse for Walsall on Saturday afternoon, as they were defeated 2-0 away at Blackpool. The Saddlers have now lost three on the bounce and are getting dangerously close to the dreaded drop-zone. Against a relegation rival, this is a must-win game for Dean Keates’ men.

      Walsall’s recent results have been poor and thus it’s easy to fear for the Saddlers, who’ve now dropped to just two points above the drop-zone. However, their last couple of performances have been far better than their results would have us believe. They lost away at Bloomfield Road last time out, but Keates’ men really ought to have got at least a point, especially as they recorded 2.11 expected goas for and ended the match with an expected goal difference of +0.80, while much the same can be said for their defeat at home to Rochdale prior to that.

      Results have gone against them, but their last two performances have been encouraging. A repeat of either their efforts against Blackpool or their efforts against Rochdale would likely see the Saddlers get a better result on Tuesday evening. That said, they do have a tendency of defending poorly on home soil. At Bescot Stadium, Keates’ men are scoring a modest average of 1.2 goals, while they’ve averaging 1.35 expected goals for, which isn’t appalling, but they’ve surrendered 1.73 and 1.58 at the other end, which doesn’t bode well, even ahead of a match against a Wimbledon side that is reasonably limited in the final third.

      Wimbledon’s recent efforts have been less encouraging than Walsall to be quite honest. The Dons were unlucky to lose away against Sunderland in their penultimate match, but they were very poor on their own patch at the weekend.

      However, while their overall efforts have been reasonably poor for a while, some of their travelling efforts suggest that they could cause a few problems for Walsall’s dodgy back-line. Tuesday’s visitors have scored in four of their last five on the road, notching against the likes of Coventry, Portsmouth and Wycombe, all of whom are better at the back than Tuesday’s hosts, so there is some hope for the Dons, who’re averaging 1.16 expected goals for away from home this season.

      Were this almost any other side apart from Walsall, then it would be tough to oppose the home win though with the Saddlers known for gifting goals away, it’s tough to make a case for Keates’ men at the current prices. Instead, ‘Both Teams to Score’ stands out. Walsall have done more than enough at home to suggest they can notch against a Wimbledon side that is without an away clean sheet since September, though their defensive efforts simply inspire no confidence. Against a side that concedes an average of 1.58 expected goals and that has shipped at least once in each of their last nine at home, even Wimbledon’s lacklustre attack can profit.

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