Walsall vs Coventry Predictions

Walsall’s early-season promise is now a thing of the past. Dean Keates’ men have failed to win any of their last six in all competitions, while they’ve now gone five league matches without a win also. That said, the Saddlers have just drawn (twice) at home with high-flyers Sunderland, so they may not be feeling too downbeat ahead of this match.

Barring a dominant performance against a Sunderland side that was a man light for almost the entirety of the match, the Saddlers have struggled to get things together of late. Saturday’s hosts are finding themselves being outplayed at both ends of the pitch on a regular basis. It’s now been well over a month since Walsall outscored an opponent in League One, while aside from that game against the Black Cats, they’ve been outdone according to expected goals in each of their last five, as well as in seven of their ten home matches.

Even on their own patch, Keates’ men have struggled to keep things tight defensively. They’ve conceded at least twice in each of their last four at Bescot Stadium, while they’re shipping an average of 1.84 expected goals. An average of 1.58 at the other end suggests that they’re OK offensively, but they’re forward-line is seemingly not good enough to outweigh what goes on at the other end.

In contrast, from both an overall performance and chance creation point of view, Coventry are useful at keeping themselves in games, while they’ve dominated teams far more frequently than their hosts on Saturday. The Sky Blues have been outdone according to expected goals in just two of their last eight in League One, while their recent efforts on the road have been pleasing too.

Mark Robins men may have been beaten by Fleetwood in their most recent away matches, but they created more than enough to get something from that game, while much of the same can be said for their defeat at Burton prior to that. Before those two defeats, the Sky Blues had won three away matches on the bounce.

Crucially, Coventry, who’re giving up an average of 1.28 expected goals on their travels, look more likely to keep their opponents out than Walsall, while they’re also better in the final third too.

A month ago, Walsall did get the better of the Sky Blues, winning by three goals to two at this venue in the FA Cup, though too much shouldn’t be read into that result. There’s plenty to suggest that the visitors can reverse the form with Saturday’s hosts.

With the betting the way it is, Coventry are most definitely the team to side with. The visitors have offered more than Walsall in almost every area, including expected goals against, shots against, shots for, touches in the opposition penalty area and progressive passes, so it’s easy to feel that Robins’ side could be shorter than their current price, a price that should be taken advantage of.