Aston Villa vs Wolverhampton Predictions

• Aston Villa have won 10 of their last 12 matches
• Wolves have lost five of six league trips this term
• The Villains have conceded 1.1 xG or more in five of their last six
• Wolves won the xG battle 1.8-1.2 against Palace last week, including 0.77 xG from set pieces

Tall task for Edwards

Rob Edwards can have little doubt about the task ahead of him at Wolves, after his reign started with a 2-0 home defeat against Crystal Palace last weekend.

Wolves remain rooted to the bottom of the table, now nine points from safety. They’re huge outsiders for Sunday’s visit to Villa Park, but there is a soft underbelly to the in-form Villains, which could lead to an entertaining clash.

Defensive issues remain for Villa

Aston Villa have now won 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions, but they are still yet to fully convince. A 2-1 victory over Young Boys in Europe on Thursday continued their strong start in the Europa League, while a 2-1 victory at Leeds last weekend lifted them into the top four of the Premier League.

However, Thursday’s 2-1 win ended a run of five successive games in which Villa had conceded at least 1.1 Expected Goals, and they didn’t even break that streak by keeping a clean sheet. The Villains have conceded in eight of their first 12 league games, so it’s hard to see them simply shutting down Wolves.

The visitors have lost five straight games, while they’ve been beaten in all but one of their six trips this term. However, there are signs that they could cause issues for Villa at the back, so back a home win and both teams to score.

Long-shot Krejci can threaten

While Wolves lost their opener under Edwards, there was a noted improvement in terms of chance creation. They won the xG battle 1.8 to 1.2 against Palace, while defender Krejci contributed 0.6 xG to that tally.

Krejci scored against Leeds earlier this term, while he’s had a shot in five of his last six games for Wolves. He seems to be the focus of set pieces for Edwards, who made Luton incredibly effective at that part of the game.

Edwards arrived midway through the 2022/23 season, with Luton finishing with 13 set piece goals on their way to promotion. Only three top-flight sides had more set-piece goals the following term, while only two topped their 17 set-piece goals in last year’s Championship relegation campaign.

Krejci leads Wolves in terms of shots from set pieces, so he’s a standout at 11/1 in the anytime goalscorer market. Almost half of the goals Villa have conceded in the league this term have come from set pieces.