Sporting Gijon vs Valencia Predictions

Valencia’s return after the Christmas break was an unhappy one on Saturday. The Bats took the lead away against Alaves, though they were unable to move in the right direction once in front and eventually lost by two goals to one. Gijon also lost on their return to domestic action at the weekend, so they too will be looking to bounce back on Tuesday evening.

The hosts are currently operating at the level below Valencia, while they didn’t exactly build momentum at the weekend, but they aren’t likely to show any fear in front of their own fans on Tuesday. José Alberto López Menéndez’s men knocked out top-flight Eibar in the last round, while they’ve been tough to beat in their own division for some time.

Gijon have lost just one of their last six league matches, during which time they’ve been reasonably useful at the back. Prior to their defeat at the weekend, where they created more than their opponents, Tuesday’s hosts had kept three clean sheets on the spin. In addition, their underlying numbers at home are pleasing. Gijon are averaging 1.55 expected goals for at home, while they’re conceding just 1.01 at the other end.

What’s more, Menéndez’s side should take plenty of confidence from the fact that they dominated a Primera side at this venue in the last round. When beating Eibar by two goals to nil back in November, Gijon showed themselves to be useful going forward, while they were very disciplined defensively, as they gave up just 0.29 expected goals.

Tuesday’s hosts will also take confidence from the fact that Valencia struggled to beat lower-level opposition in the previous round. The Bats won by just two goals to one when they visited third-tier Ebro a few months back, while they didn’t exactly make light work of winning the second leg. Given that Valencia emerged from that fixture with an expected goal difference of just +0.31, Gijon have little to fear.

In addition to a rather lacklustre performance against Ebro in the previous round, Valencia haven’t exactly flourished away from home in La Liga this season. Marcelino’s men have won just two of their nine away games during the current campaign, while they’re currently without a win in three on the road. They’re averaging 1.2 expected goals on their travels and are shipping an average of 1.38.

Given the numbers on offer, coupled with the fact that Gijon played well against top-tier opposition at this venue in the previous round, not to mention the fact Valencia stuttered their way past third-tier opponents, it’s easy to feel that the hosts are a tad overpriced. Against a Valencia side that will probably be far less expansive in this fixture than they will at Mestalla in the second leg, the hosts are fancied to get a result. Punters can profit by being on ‘Gijon +1 Handicap’.