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Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
After drawing all three of their group games, Cape Verde will be aiming to similarly frustrate defending champions Argentina in the first knockout round.
We’ve backed the champions to end the Blue Sharks’ incredible run, with Argentina heavily odds-on for victory. However, I’ve delved into some other markets to put together a 60/1 fourfold for the clash in Miami.
Argentina vs Cape Verde Ultimate Bet Builder
Lionel Messi to score from outside the box
Lionel Messi will be aiming to overtake Kylian Mbappe in the Golden Boot stakes, with both players on six goals at the tournament. The Argentine is also narrowly ahead of Mbappe in the all-time World Cup scoring charts, so their battle is key on two fronts.
Messi has scored from range in two of his three group appearances, and he faces a Cape Verde side that faced an average of seven shots per game from outside of their penalty area. The Blue Sharks will aim to defend deep, but Messi’s brilliance can overcome that.
Kevin Pina to have 1+ shots
Cape Verde had chances to steal a win against Spain, and they won’t simply dig in for 90 minutes. Kevin Pina is clear evidence of that, with the midfielder taking a shot in all three games in the group stage.
Pina had five shots across five AFCON appearances in 2024, and he should be confident after scoring in two of his last four international appearances.
Lionel Messi to make 2+ tackles
Argentina will aim to win the ball back from Cape Verde high up the pitch, and Lionel Messi can play a key role in that. He made two tackles in both of his group stage starts, and that defensive work should continue as he returns to the starting lineup for their last 32 tie.
Both teams to receive the same number of cards
In a game with such a heavy favourite, you usually expect the underdog to rack up cards, given the gulf in ability and the possession dominance of the favourites. However, Cape Verde made only one foul across their goalless draw with Spain, and they have been pretty disciplined throughout the tournament.
Their first two group games saw them finish level with their opponents in terms of cards, while Saudi Arabia picked up three cards to Cape Verde’s one in their final match. Two of Argentina’s three group matches finished level in terms of cards shown, which makes a draw in the card betting stand out at just shy of 3/1.
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