EFL League One 2025/26 outright winner, relegation & top 6 predictions

Following on from our League Two outright tips, the next instalment of our season outright predictions takes us to the third tier of English football ahead of kick-off later this week.

Doncaster Rovers, Port Vale, Bradford City, and Wimbledon make the step up to League One this term, with the trio of Luton, Plymouth, and Cardiff being relegated from the Championship.

Fresh from his League Two outrights, EFL expert Joe Casey is back for his third-tier predictions.

2025/26 EFL League One outright winner betting odds

• Luton – 7/2

• Huddersfield – 13/2

• Cardiff – 8/1

• Plymouth – 8/1

• Stockport – 10/1

• Bolton – 11/1

• Blackpool – 12/1

• Reading – 18/1

• Wycombe – 20/1

*Odds correct as of 28/07/2025 on bet365

2025/26 EFL League One outright winner prediction

Bolton Wanderers to win League One at 11/1

Birmingham were short-priced favourites to win League One last season and duly obliged in comfortable style, going up alongside fellow heavy spenders Wrexham but the race to top the third tier is much more competitive this time around.

The three relegated teams – Luton, Plymouth and Cardiff – head the market but there are a number of interesting contenders in the hunt for promotion to the Championship.

Bolton are one such team and they have solid credentials when it comes to topping the table.

Wanderers finished eighth and just missed out on the play-offs last season after Steven Schumacher’s arrival as new manager in March but with a full summer to prepare under the boss they look like they could be big runners.

Schumacher oversaw Plymouth’s League One title win in 2023 so knows what it takes to win at this level and Wanderers have made some eye-catching additions.

Amario Cozier-Duberry is a very highly thought of youngster who has arrived from Brighton on loan after impressing at Blackburn last term while fellow new signing Sam Dalby was the third-highest scorer in the Scottish Premiership for Dundee United last term and could prove a hit at this level.

Goalkeeper was something of a problem position last season but England Under-21 goalkeeper Teddy Sharman-Lowe has arrived on loan from Chelsea after playing every game of Doncaster’s League Two-winning campaign last season.

Wanderers were too open at the back last season but Richard Taylor looks a solid addition in defence.

Bolton were one of just three teams to beat Birmingham last season, showing what they were capable of on their day, and they should have a better balance of defence and attack this time around.

In general the Trotters could be overlooked in what is a league which is much more competitive than it was last season.

2025/26 EFL League One relegation & top 6 predictions

Burton Albion to be relegated at 2/1

Burton stayed up by the skin of their teeth last season, finishing just a point above Crawley to retain their League One status, but their luck could run out this time around.

After a takeover and a British-record 23 signings, the tumultuous campaign was saved by the arrival of manager Gary Bowyer steering them to safety.

However they are currently under investigation by the FA for that spending spree last summer and the signs off the pitch have not been good, with a number of staff being made redundant as the owners tighten their belts.

The Brewers have also lost some key players from last season through the spine of their team, with goalkeeper Max Crocombe departing for Millwall, defender Ryan Sweeney going to Mansfield and midfielder Elliot Watt leaving for Motherwell.

Goals were an issue last term, they only netted 49 times in 46 games, and Jon Dadi Bodvarsson has left after scoring some crucial ones last season.

Fabio Tavares has arrived from Coventry to try and alleviate that pressure but he is a player who has struggled with injuries throughout his career.

All in all it may take another piece of Gary Bowyer magic to keep the side in the division and it looks as though their time could be up.

Reading to finish in the top 6 at 9/4

Things are looking up at Reading after a tumultuous few years and they look a solid pick for a top-six finish in League One.

The Royals finished just three points outside of the play-off places last season and a summer takeover has steadied the ship after the departure of unpopular owner Dai Yongge, which has brightened the mood at the club.

They lost just three of their last 19 games of the season and with that improvement set to continue, they look like a team going places.

Noel Hunt’s side were the also second-youngest in the third tier last season and with another campaign under their belts, should be set to improve.

Paudie O’Connor and Jack Stevens are solid signings and the loan additions of defender Finley Burns from Manchester City and striker Mark O’Mahony from Brighton should add real quality to their lineup.

O’Mahony netted three times in 13 Championship games for Portsmouth last term and could really excel at the League One level over a full campaign.

Harvey Knibbs scored 14 goals and registered six assists in 2024-25 and if the Royals can hold on to him, they look set for a strong campaign in which a top-six finish could be on the cards.

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