World Cup 2026 Group I betting preview & team guide
Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
Two-time World Cup winners France head into Group I as heavy favourites to top the standings ahead of Norway and Senegal, while 40/1 underdogs Iraq are participating in their first World Cup finals since 1986.
World Cup 2026 Group I winner betting odds
- France – 2/5
- Norway – 11/4
- Senegal – 8/1
- Iraq – 40/1
*All odds correct as of 30th May, 2026 on bet365.com
Group I guide
France
Overview
After making it two consecutive World Cup finals, France are second-favourites in the betting behind Spain for the 2026 edition, with Didier Deschamps leading a star-studded cast into his seventh major tournament as Les Bleus manager.
Strengths
The sheer depth of world-class talent going forward is the biggest talking point for France, with Kylian Mbappe supported by the likes of Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, and Rayan Cherki.
Weaknesses
For all their talent, France do have a tendency to take their foot off the pedal in the so-called easier fixtures. They conceded in both meetings with Iceland in qualifying, drawing one of them, and failed to keep a clean sheet against Azerbaijan. This could be dangerous against the physicality of Senegal and the raw power in attack from Norway.
Prospects
Anything other than an appearance in the final for the third World Cup running will be classed as a disappointment for France, who possess arguably the most talented squad in world football and are managed by the tremendously experienced Didier Deschamps.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Winners (1998, 2018)
Key player: Kylian Mbappe
Rising star: Rayan Cherki
France predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Kounde, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Tchouameni, Rabiot; Dembele, Olise, Barcola; Mbappe
Best Bet – Kylian Mbappe to be top goalscorer at 6/1
Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot in the 2022 World Cup and is almost certain to be France’s all-time leading goalscorer by the end of the tournament. Despite a disappointing season for Real Madrid, the 27-year-old has still scored 41 goals for the club and he has netted six goals in his last six appearances for Les Bleus.
Norway
Overview
After almost three decades of absence from the World Cup, Norway qualified for the 2026 edition with a bang as they romped to eight straight wins in qualifying, beating Italy home and away and scoring an incredible 37 goals in the process. They are second favourites to top Group I, and their top-tier attackers will be a thorn in the side of any teams they face.
Strengths
Norway are blessed with three world-class attackers, the foremost of whom is Erling Haaland. He scored 16 goals in qualifying and is joined by Atletico Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth and Arsenal playmaker Martin Odegaard.
Weaknesses
Balance may prove an issue for Norway, who have conceded against the Netherlands, Italy, New Zealand, and Moldova since September. While their attack has the quality to challenge any defence in the world, they may struggle to control games against better opposition.
Prospects
Norway may be appearing in their first major tournament since Euro 2000, but with the talent available to Stale Solbakken, Norwegian fans will be expecting to at least make it to the knockout stages. Balance may become an issue against the better sides in the tournament, but a quarter-final run is not out of the question.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Round of 16 (1998)
Key player: Erling Haaland
Rising star: Antonio Nusa
Norway predicted lineup (4-3-3): Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Ostigard, Wolfe; Berge, Berg, Odegaard; Nusa, Haaland, Sorloth
Best Bet – Norway to reach the round of 16 at 4/5
Topping Group I is not beyond the realms of possibility, but even a runners-up spot is likely to pit Norway against either Ivory Coast or Ecuador. Their attackers have the ability to overwhelm nations of that stature, so a trip to the last 16 is the least they will be expecting.
Senegal
Overview
Still reeling from having their Africa Cup of Nations title stripped, Senegal head to North America as third-favourites to win Group I, with national legends Idrissa Gueye and Sadio Mane looking to make an impact in what could be their final World Cup with the Lions of Teranga.
Strengths
An extremely strong and experienced spine of Kalidou Koulibaly and Idrissa Gueye will be key to Senegal’s chances, while Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson offer plenty of quality going forward.
Weaknesses
With an ageing array of star players, fixture congestion could prove an issue for Senegal. Gueye, Koulibaly, and Mane are all 34 or older, with the latter two plying their trade in the less intense Saudi Pro League.
Prospects
France and Norway are the big hitters in Group I, but the presence of underdogs Iraq does give Senegal plenty of hope of reaching the knockout stages. They made the round of 16 in Qatar four years ago, and a repeat of that run may be in store.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Quarter-finals (2002)
Key player: Sadio Mane
Rising star: Ibrahim Mbaye
Senegal predicted lineup (4-3-3): E. Mendy; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhate, Diouf; P. Gueye, Camara, I. Sarr; I Sarr, Jackson, Mane
Best Bet – Senegal to qualify from Group I at 1/2
Senegal have the discipline and experience to keep things tight and perhaps even nick a result against France or Norway, and they should have no problems getting a win against Iraq, which should be enough to see them through to the knockout stages.
Iraq
Overview
A lengthy qualifying campaign spanning 20 games saw Iraq qualify for their second-ever World Cup and their first in 40 years, but they face an uphill battle in an extremely difficult Group I, leaving them a massive 40/1 to top the group and 3/1 to make it to the knockout stages.
Strengths
Iraq are extremely well-organised when up against more talented opposition. They picked up a draw against Saudi Arabia in October and have kept things close against Algeria and South Korea recently. They will set out to frustrate the opposition, which has been a successful strategy for a number of sides in recent World Cups.
Weaknesses
The lack of top-class talent is a clear weakness of this Iraq side, with former Manchester United midfielder Zidane Iqbal the most recognisable name in the squad and none of their squad members plying their trade in Europe’s top five leagues.
Prospects
Iraq lost all three of their group games in their only other World Cup appearance in 1986, and anything other than a repeat of that would be classed as a huge success for the Group I underdogs.
Team guide
Best World Cup finish: Group Stage (1986)
Key player: Aymen Hussein
Rising star: Ali Jasim
Iraq predicted lineup (4-2-3-1): Hassan; Ali, Tahseen, Hashim, Doski; Al-Ammari, Ismael, Jasim, Iqbal, Bayesh; Hussein
Best Bet – Iraq to finish bottom of Group I
Iraq may be capable of frustrating their opponents, but all three of the other teams in Group I have the quality to wear the underdogs’ defence down eventually and a repeat of their three defeats in 1986 looks a likely outcome.
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