55/1 City vs Chelsea tip & get 50/1 on a goal to be scored!
Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
Enzo Maresca’s dismissal has left Chelsea vulnerable ahead of their visit to the Etihad on Sunday. The managerless Blues are also without some key names at the back, and I’ve backed an uncomfortable debut for interim boss Calum McFarlane with 13/8 & 22/1 tips.
I’ve taken a deeper look at the player stats to put together a 55/1 fourfold for the Super Sunday clash. This tip has been priced up with Paddy Power, who are offering 50/1 on a goal to be scored to new customers ahead of the game.
Man City vs Chelsea Ultimate Bet Builder
Erling Haaland to score anytime
Chelsea have been awful defensively of late, with both Nick Woltemade and Ollie Watkins taking full advantage of their issues. Both players have netted a brace against Chelsea across the Blues’ last three league games, so Erling Haaland is backed to trouble the visitors.
Haaland has scored 11 goals in nine home league games this season, while the forward has scored four goals across the last four encounters between these two sides.
Josko Gvardiol to have 2+ shots
Chelsea have conceded 9.99 Expected Goals from set pieces this season, which is the third-highest tally in the Premier League. The Blues are a mid-ranking side for xG conceded, while a huge chunk of the shots they’ve faced have come from set plays.
Defender Josko Gvardiol leads all City players in shots from set pieces, and the defender should trouble Chelsea this weekend. The Croatian’s return of 16 shots from 15 Premier League appearances isn’t huge, but chances tend to fall to him in bulk. His 16 shots have come from only eight of those matches.
Gvardiol has had at least one shot in six of his last seven games across all competitions. The defender had three shots in this fixture last season, scoring City’s opening goal.
Enzo Fernandez 3+ foul involvements
Fernandez has made 21 fouls and drawn another 21 across his first 18 Premier League appearances this season. The Argentine should have a more physical role here, with Moises Caicedo missing the game through suspension.
Chelsea are second for fouls drawn and fourth for fouls committed this term, so this is likely to be a stop-start affair.
Fernandez has committed at least two fouls in five of his last six games for Chelsea, while he has drawn three fouls in two of his last five.
A red card to be shown
Chelsea’s last 23 games have featured a total of nine red cards, and it’s hard to imagine that was entirely down to Enzo Maresca. Chelsea’s high rate of fouls, along with their inexperience, has led to a high number of dismissals.
The Blues have been shown four reds in the Premier League, including their visit to Manchester United in September and their clash with Arsenal in November.
Both Napoli and Sunderland have been reduced to 10 men in visits to the Etihad this season, while a red card has been shown to Chelsea’s opponents on three occasions.
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