bet365 Square Logo

Carabao Cup Final betting trends

Updated on 12:21pm GMT 25 February 2023
Carabao Cup Final betting trends
Alex Wrigley
Alex Wrigley
Show Bio

Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.

The first silverware of the season is up for grabs at Wembley on Sunday afternoon as the in-form Manchester United look to end their trophy drought against the up-and-coming Newcastle.

With Sunday’s showdown in mind, I’ve looked into every League Cup Final since the turn of the millennium to identify any trends we might use in our betting.

Stark contrast in EFL Cup finals records

Manchester United have reached the final of this competition nine times and have won five titles, the last of which came in the 2016/17 season under Jose Mourinho as they claimed a 3-2 win over Southampton thanks to a double from Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

That was United’s last domestic trophy success and a few members from that squad still remain at Old Trafford. David de Gea and Anthony Martial started against Saints, while Marcus Rashford entered the action as a substitute.

In contrast, Newcastle have only ever reached one final in the EFL Cup and that appearance came way back in 1976 when they lost out 2-1 to Manchester City.

The finals record points to a win for Manchester United and another trend which suggests Newcastle face an uphill struggle is the fact that since 2005 only two pre-match underdogs have gone on to lift the trophy, with 6/1 Birmingham against Arsenal in 2011 being the biggest upset.

The Magpies go into this final as the 13/10 underdogs to lift the trophy, with Manchester United rated as the 8/13 favourites.

Trends suggest an entertaining affair

Finals can often be cagey affairs but that is the case with EFL Cup showpieces and in general they do provide goals.

Of the 22 finals since the turn of the millennium, 14 have seen both teams score and 14 have provided at least 3 goals in 90 minutes (64%), with an average of 2.72 goals inside 90 minutes. Over 2.5 goals on Sunday is the better option in terms of value at 21/20, with both teams to score on offer at ⅘.

Anyone hoping for an extended final could be in luck on Sunday as an impressive eight of the last 22 EFL Cup finals went to extra time (36%) and a further six went to penalties (27%) and this game is 9/2 to be decided after a penalty shootout.

Not got a bet365 account to back these EFL Cup final trends? Sign up to bet365 below and claim £50 in free bets when you bet £10!

build better bets free super tips.gif

Build better bets with our free betting tips, predictions and accumulators, every day.

More betting news:

70/1 Correct Score double winner and more on Thursday!

MLS outright predictions & tips

Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury predictions & tips

View All Today’s Sports Tips

Betting Academy: See our complete guide to football betting

Why not check out our selection of betting tips for the US market? We offer NBA TipsNHL TipsMLB Tips and more!

Related Articles

See All