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Serie A 2018/19 Mid-season Betting Tips, Stats and Review
Aaron Rogan
Aaron Rogan
January 16, 2019
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Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.

The Serie A campaign is about to pick up pace in the coming weeks, as the league returns from the winter break. At the half-way point, there’s plenty still to play for. While Juventus are desperate to turn the season into a procession, there are top sides in Italy scrapping for the Champions League.

We’re looking back over the last few months in Italy, after a dramatic few months of the campaign. However, we’re also looking at the latest betting value from across the league. The half-way point seems like the perfect time to reflect on the current table while picking out a few bets which look like great value going into the run-in.

The Season so Far

Dries Mertens celebrating for Napoli

Juventus are the clear champions-elect after their great season so far, which has put them nine points clear. They’re pushing for an eighth straight title, and this has been the best campaign for them in that run. They’ve dropped only four points all season, making relentless pace at the summit. They’ve been made odds-on favourites for the league and cup, while they are available at 6/1 to lift the European Cup.

While Juventus have basically wrapped up the title, there are some big sides making a push behind them. Both Napoli and Inter Milan have had solid seasons in the league and Champions League – despite their group stage exits. The pair are chasing second place, as they look to establish themselves as the main contenders to Juve moving forward. That leaves only one spot in the top four up for grabs.

That fight has come down to AC Milan and Lazio, with Roma slipping into the mix just before the winter break. The middle of the Serie A table has been really tight, opening up a big battle for the last Europa League spot. Newly promoted Parma – who sit in 12th – are among the sides in reach of a top-seven finish. Meanwhile, Chievo are as good as down at the bottom, after winning just once all season. Frosinone and Bologna are in trouble, with all three struggling for goals so far this season.

Key Serie A Statistics

Serie A - Atalanta vs Napoli

  • Atalanta are the league’s top scorers (39 goals), but only six sides have conceded more than la Dea’s 27.
  • Genoa have been the go-to side for goals this season, with 74% of their league games seeing both teams score.
  • Napoli are the most effective side in the final 10 minutes of games in Serie A. They’ve scored 11 times, conceding just once.
  • The Partenopei are also the league’s best starters, scoring seven and conceding none in their opening 10 minutes.
  • Parma have the third best record in the first half of games, picking up 32 points – just six fewer than Juventus. However, they also have the second-worst second-half record.
  • Outside of Juventus, Torino are the only other side who are yet to lose an away game.

Serie A Midseason Betting Tips

Kostas Manolas Roma

Winner Without Juventus – Inter Milan

The title may already be decided, with Juventus streets ahead of the rest. However, who will be the highest placed finisher aside from the Old Lady? Napoli lead the way as things stand, but they took a hit at the end of last year in a 1-0 loss to Inter. That’s opened up the race for second, but can the Nerazzurri edge it?

We picked them out as likely contenders for second back at the start of the season. They have made good improvements to the squad this season, while the lack of Champions League football means they can focus on Serie A, and making it into second. They should put up a challenge to Napoli in the coming months, so it’s strange that the Partenopei are 1/4 favourites for second.

We see Inter edging that particular battle, especially given the goal threat they have in Mauro Icardi. The Nerazzurri have been priced up at 3/1 in the Winner Without Juventus market, something that we think is a well-priced bet.

Top Four Finish – Roma

The top four race seems pretty open, but it’s likely to be a three-way fight. AC Milan are chasing down Lazio, with the two spending all season fighting for fourth. The pair missed out last term, but a place had opened up with Roma’s inconsistency. The Giallorossi haven’t been in the top four all season, bringing pressure onto Eusebio Di Francesco.

However, the young boss guided them to a third-place finish last term, along with a Champions League semi-final. With young players joining the club in the summer, they should gain momentum as the season progresses, while their new look side needs time to bed in. There were certainly teething problems early on, but it’s left them only two points shy of fourth.

Meanwhile, AC Milan have had their issues in recent weeks. They’re set to lose Gonzalo Higuain in January, with the out of form forward their only real goal threat. Lazio have fallen short in the last few years, and we don’t see enough progress to back them to move into fourth. We’re going with Roma to edge it, so we see them as value for fourth at 2/1.

Top Scorer – Mauro Icardi

One huge price at the half-way point is Mauro Icardi’s top scorer odds. The Argentine was top scorer last season, scoring a total of 29 goals. He has made a lesser impact in the league so far this term, hitting nine goals for Inter so far from 14 starts. He should get a little more momentum later this campaign, now that Inter are out of the Champions League.

We can see the Argentine kicking on in the coming months for the Nerazzurri. They need him at his best if they’re to kick on, yet Icardi is a huge 12/1 to win the fight for the Golden Boot. Current leader Cristiano Ronaldo is likely to feature less in the league as Juve switch their focus to the Champions League. That should leave an opening, making Icardi look like value in our eyes

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